Part One: Bitcoin Miner Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 - Market Poised for a New High?
1. Miner Behavior Shift: From Selling to Holding
According to the latest data from crypto analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miner selling pressure indicator (measuring the ratio of miner outflows to reserves in 30 days) has fallen below the lower rail, reaching the lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the previous model of "selling to cover operating costs" to strategic hoarding.
This is in stark contrast to the miners' dilemma after the 2024 halving (when daily selling volume increased from 900 to 1,200 coins), but the current market environment is driving miners to adjust their strategies:
- Profit Expectations Driving Hoarding: With Bitcoin's price recently breaking through $100,000 and approaching historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin to await higher returns rather than short-term cash-outs.
- Structural Industry Optimization: The scaled development of mining by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) reduces the exit risk of inefficient miners, and improved industry concentration alleviates selling pressure.
- Historical Experience: Past cycles where miners were over-leveraged and held long-term led to liquidity crises (like the 2018 bear market), so now they focus more on short-term financial stability.
2. Market Resilience Revealed by On-Chain Data
Alphractal's miner selling pressure indicator shows that the current market structure is entirely different from the "panic selling" in early 2024:
- Long-Term Holders Dominate: Currently, Bitcoin held for over 6 months accounts for over 80%, far lower than the proportion of short-term holders at historical cycle peaks, providing stable price support.
- Exchange Reserves at New Lows: Continued decline in Bitcoin exchange reserves indicates the market is in a "high-speed accumulation period", with selling pressure dispersed by over-the-counter trading or institutional positions.
- Derivatives Market Risk: Despite a stable spot market, there are large high-leverage long positions in the $100,000-$110,000 range, which could trigger billions of dollars in liquidations if price fluctuates.
3. Price Trend and Future Expectations
As of May 12, 2025, Bitcoin price is $104,250, with a 24-hour increase of 1% and a cumulative increase of over 30% in the past month. Market disagreement focuses on subsequent trends:
- Technical Signals: RSI (75) shows overbought, but MACD continues upward; key support at $10,000 if breached could trigger short-term holder selling.
- Macro Variable Impacts: Fed rate cut expectations (if over 100 basis points in 2025) might provide a "Davis double-click" opportunity for Bitcoin, but stagflation risks could weaken its hedging attributes.
- Miner Behavior Dynamics: If price breaks $110,000, miner selling pressure might rise, but current low selling levels suggest the market may enter a "calm upward period".
