Next week's macro outlook: CPI data may trigger stagflation trading script, BTC may face $100,000 support test

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PANews
05-10
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PANews reported on May 10th that Bitcoin returned above $100,000 this week. Wall Street appeared cautious at the end of the trading week, with US stocks and bonds fluctuating as the world's two largest economies prepare to launch trade negotiations, and investors avoided higher-risk bets. Continued market optimism pressured gold prices, with gold prices falling nearly 4% over Wednesday and Thursday, but rebounding on Friday, rising 2.64% last week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday at 22:25, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech;

Tuesday at 20:30, US April Unadjusted CPI Year-on-Year Rate/Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-on-Month Rate/Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI Month-on-Month Rate/Unadjusted Core CPI Year-on-Year Rate;

Thursday at 05:40, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a fireside chat;

Thursday at 20:30, US April Retail Sales Month-on-Month Rate, US April PPI Year-on-Year Rate/Month-on-Month Rate, US May New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;

Thursday at 20:40, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will deliver opening remarks at an event;

Thursday, the Federal Reserve will hold the second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, which will focus on monetary policy and economic research, expected to provide an academic perspective for the Fed's commitment to reviewing the monetary policy framework every five years, until the 16th;

Friday at 22:00, US May One-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Initial Value, US May University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Initial Value.

The Federal Reserve's tone this week was not dovish, with more than half of the policymakers giving public speeches on Friday, and no policymaker indicating that the Fed is close to cutting rates. Next week's economic data will provide an important perspective, with the April US CPI to be released on Tuesday offering a new interpretation of inflation trends, and the April retail sales data to be released on Thursday providing the latest window into consumer spending. The April US CPI is expected to confirm that price pressures remain too high, with no reason to cut rates for now. Although the dollar index has risen in the short term, it still faces selling pressure due to the risk of stagflation from ongoing tariffs. Additionally, the impact of macroeconomic data on Bitcoin prices and whether Bitcoin can consolidate its support around $100,000 are worth watching.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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