Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Bull market, quick return!
Overnight, the crypto market saw a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising again to over $100,000, reaching a high of over $103,000, and Ethereum even achieving more than a 20% increase. The crypto market looks extremely promising. At the time of writing, BTC is up 4.7% at $102,804. Additionally, many other mainstream cryptocurrencies have achieved double-digit gains.
What factors are driving the rapid crypto market recovery? How high can this market trend go?
I. US-UK Trade Agreement
The United States and the United Kingdom announced a trade agreement on May 8 (Thursday), which is the first formal trade agreement reached by President Trump since launching the global reciprocal tariff policy. Trump called this agreement a "historic breakthrough," while British Prime Minister Starmer stated that reaching a consensus on the Victory in Europe Day is a "historic day".
[The rest of the translation continues in the same professional manner, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms and preserving the original structure and meaning of the text.]She stated: "This settlement agreement, along with the procedural dismantling of the SEC's crypto enforcement plan, has caused great harm to the investing public and weakened the court's role in interpreting our securities laws." "Meanwhile, this settlement agreement, together with a series of dismissal decisions, has jointly damaged the credibility of our lawyers in court, who are now being asked to take a legal stance opposite to what they held a few months ago."
At the same time, Krenshaw believed that if Judge Torres accepts the settlement, it would erase "the investor protection we have won" and leave a "regulatory vacuum" until the cryptocurrency working group develops a regulatory framework. "This settlement agreement does not serve the best interests of the investors and markets we serve and protect. It raises more questions than answers."
IV. SEC Considers New Rules to Relax Securities Token Issuance
Hester Peirce, a commissioner of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated in a speech on May 8 that the commission is considering modifying rules to allow companies more freedom in issuing tokenized securities.
Peirce said in her speech that regulators are "considering potential exemptions for companies issuing, trading, and settling securities using blockchain technology", exempting them from certain registration requirements. For example, decentralized exchanges (DEX) may no longer need to register as "broker-dealers, clearing houses, or exchanges". The SEC has previously issued multiple Wells notices to DEXs like Uniswap, accusing them of failing to register as securities exchanges. Enterprises "should not comply with inappropriate regulations that were often created before the tested technology emerged and may be canceled due to the technology's characteristics".
V. Stagflation Concerns "Favorable" for Crypto Assets
The Federal Reserve's decision on May 7 to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% has enhanced the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized in his post-meeting remarks that stagflation risks are rising - with slow economic growth and persistent inflation - partly due to Trump's tariff policies.
Kobeissi Letter stated on X: "The Fed seems to expect both future inflation and unemployment rates to rise" and added: "They are postponing rate cuts to observe which part of their dual mandate will further heat up. Uncertainty remains."
This environment enhances Bitcoin's status as a store of value, often compared to "digital gold". Concerned about inflation pressures eroding fiat currencies, investors are using Bitcoin as a hedge, similar to the crypto rise during the 2020 monetary easing period.
Zach Pandl, Research Director at Grayscale, believes: "The Fed is worried about stagflation, and we think this outcome is favorable for Bitcoin."
VI. Cryptocurrency Market Technical Rebound
From a technical perspective, the current cryptocurrency rise is part of a rebound from the $2.4 trillion support level. The last time the market cap broke through $3 trillion was on March 3, after which it fell to $2.27 trillion on April 7 due to tariff-induced selling. Currently, the total crypto market cap is $3.03 trillion, attempting to break through the resistance zone between $3.1 trillion and $3.25 trillion.
Daily cryptocurrency market cap trend chart.
If this occurs, it would indicate that bulls have the ability to maintain an upward trend and set their sights on the historical high above $3.69 trillion. The daily RSI has steadily risen from the oversold state of 30 on April 7 to the current 68, indicating accelerating bullish momentum.
VII. How High Can This Market Move?
Standard Chartered Bank: The $120,000 target for the second quarter may be too low.
Ben Caselin, VALR's Chief Marketing Officer: As Bitcoin seeks to consolidate its value above $100,000, it is "very likely" to soon set a new high above $110,000. "Retail will only enter the traditional latter half of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, which may reach a macro peak in the fourth quarter of this year."
Charlie Sherry, Financial Director of BTC Markets in Australia: While we may see psychological resistance at the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin seems inevitably poised to add another zero to its price.
Crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano: Trade agreements mean our chances of setting a historical high in 2025 are increasing.
