Author: Lawrence, Mars Finance
Part One: Bitcoin Miner Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 - Market Poised for New High?
1. Miner Behavior Shift: From Selling to Holding
According to the latest data from crypto analysis platform Alphractal, the Bit miner selling pressure indicator (measuring the ratio of miner outflows to reserves in 30 days) has fallen below the lower rail, reaching the lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the past model of "selling to cover operating costs" to strategic accumulation.
This contrasts sharply with the halving aftermath in 2024 when miner daily sales increased from 900 to 1200 coins, but the current market environment is driving miners to adjust their strategy:
- Profit Expectations Driving Accumulation: With Bit price recently breaking $100,000 and approaching historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bit and wait for higher returns rather than short-term cash-out.
- Structural Industry Optimization: Scaled mining development by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) reduces the exit risk of inefficient miners, and increased industry concentration alleviates selling pressure.
- Historical Experience: Past cycles where miners were over-leveraged and held long-term led to liquidity crises (like the 2018 bear market), so now they focus more on short-term financial stability.
2. Market Resilience Revealed by On-Chain Data
Alphractal's miner selling pressure indicator shows that the current market structure is entirely different from the "panic selling" in early 2024:
- Long-Term Holders Dominate: Currently, Bit held for over 6 months accounts for over 80%, far lower than the short-term holder dominance at historical cycle peaks, providing stable price support.
- Exchange Reserves at New Low: Bit exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating the market is in a "high-speed accumulation period" with selling pressure dispersed by off-exchange trading or institutional positions.
- Derivatives Market Risk: Despite a stable spot market, there are large high-leverage long positions in the $100,000-$110,000 range that could trigger billions of dollars in liquidations if price fluctuates.
3. Price Trend and Future Expectations
As of May 12, 2025, Bit price is $104,250, with a 24-hour increase of 1% and over 30% cumulative growth in the past month. Market divergence focuses on subsequent trends:
- Technical Signals: RSI (75) shows overbought, but MACD continues upward; key support at $10,000 if breached might trigger short-term holder selling.
- Macro Variables: Fed rate cut expectations (if over 100 basis points in 2025) might provide a "Davis double-click" opportunity for Bit, but stagflation risks could weaken its hedging attributes.
- Miner Behavior Dynamics: If price breaks $110,000, miner selling pressure might rise, but current low selling levels suggest the market might enter a "calm upward period".
