Since TrendResearch's research report was released network-wide on April 24, 2025, ETH has risen from $1,800 to around $2,400, with a monthly increase of about 30%. The pre-report prediction was even lower at $1,450, representing a rare opportunity for large funds to achieve high returns in the short term for an asset with a trillion-scale market. The main reasons for firmly being bullish include: ETH still maintains robust financial data, and its status as a critical infrastructure in crypto remains unchanged; significant short-term adjustments (over 60% decline in 4 months); massive short positions in the derivatives market; spot volume at the bottom climbing to key support and resistance areas; continuous layout by traditional finance and gradual ETF inflows. Currently, our prediction for ETH is that in the long term, it can break through $5,000, and in an optimistic scenario, if BTC rises to over $300,000, ETH is expected to reach $10,000, and we will continue to capture opportunities related to the ETH ecosystem.
I. ETH Valuation Prediction
An important background for the new ETH valuation is capturing the convergence trend between key digital assets and traditional finance. We've observed that BTC, as the most important digital asset, after passing the spot ETF, has initiated a process of being incorporated into strategic reserve assets by US states, gradually becoming a scale expansion and strategic alternative to dollar assets. Currently ranked 6th in global asset market value, the US BTC spot ETF currently manages approximately $118.6 billion in assets, accounting for about 6% of Bitcoin's total market value. The convergence trend between crypto assets and traditional finance is beyond doubt. CZ stated in an interview in Dubai in May that Bitcoin's price in this market cycle could reach $500,000 to $1 million.
ETH still maintains robust financial data, and its position as the most important infrastructure in crypto finance remains unchanged. Ethereum's DeFi total TVL is around $60 billion, accounting for 53%+ of the global DeFi market, with stablecoin market value at $124 billion, representing 50%+ of global stablecoin market value. Ethereum ETF total AUM is $7.2 billion, with BlackRock's tokenized money market fund BUIDL having an investment scale of approximately $2.7 billion in the Ethereum ecosystem, accounting for 92% of its total assets.
ETH experienced three tops around $4,000 in 2024 before quickly dropping to around $1,300, with an ATH of over $4,800. Based on the following potential factors, we predict ETH price will reach $5,000 in this cycle:
l Imminent end of US QT and further interest rate cuts
l New SEC chair potentially bringing breakthroughs in ETH on-chain tokenization and staking-related bills
l ETH Foundation management and route repair, maintaining a certain degree of infrastructure innovation
l Maintaining a robust on-chain financial ecosystem
In a long-term optimistic prediction, ETH may challenge $10,000 in the new cycle, requiring the following conditions:
l BTC rises above $300,000
l ETH brings outstanding infrastructure innovations favorable to DeFi
l US institutions promoting ETH as a key native platform for asset tokenization
l Demonstration effect driving global asset tokenization
II. Three Unmissable ETH Ecosystem Projects
1、UNI(Uniswap): Largest DEX Protocol in Crypto Market
Uniswap is the earliest and largest Dex protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $4.7 billion, daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion, generating $900 million in revenue annually. UNI is fully circulated, with about 40% locked for governance, current circulating market cap of $4 billion, and FDV of $6.6 billion.
Currently, UNI's token economics design is somewhat decoupled from protocol revenue, with generated income not automatically distributed to UNI token holders. UNI primarily serves as a governance token, allowing voting to control treasury usage, indirectly affecting UNI price through governance proposals, such as the DAO voting to repurchase 10 million UNI in 2024.
The decoupling of protocol revenue and token returns is mainly due to previous SEC security classification regulatory risks. With US crypto regulation gradually becoming more relaxed and standardized, UNI's protocol distribution may have upgrade possibilities in the future.
Recent Uniswap developments include Uniswap V4 and Unichain expansion, and preliminary activation of the "Fee Switch" mechanism.
2、AAVE(Aave): Largest Lending Protocol in Crypto Market
AAVE is the largest lending protocol in the crypto market, with a TVL of $23 billion, generating $450 million in revenue annually, 100% circulating, with a current market cap of $3.3 billion.
Similar to UNI, there's no direct dividend relationship between protocol revenue and AAVE, instead indirectly influencing through governance.
Recent Aave developments focus on Aave V4 development, cross-chain expansion of native stablecoin GHO, and advancing the Horizon project to explore RWA business.
3、ENA(Ethena): Largest Synthetic Stablecoin Protocol in Crypto Market
From 2025 to date, Ethena's synthetic dollar USDe has become the third-largest dollar-pegged asset in the crypto market, only behind USDT and USDC, and the only synthetic stablecoin. In terms of revenue, Ethena is also a high-yield DeFi protocol, generating $315 million in annual revenue. ENA currently has a market cap of $2.18 billion, with an FDV of $5.6 billion.
Recent Ethena business developments include: Collaboration with Securitize to launch the "Converge" blockchain network, aiming to bridge traditional finance and DeFi; plans to launch an iUSDe stablecoin product for traditional financial institutions; integrating stablecoin sUSDe into Telegram; building an ecosystem based on its stablecoin sUSDe, including a perpetual and spot exchange Ethereal on its own application chain and an on-chain options and structured product protocol Derive.
