Since BTC's price broke through $85,450, the price has risen by more than 19%. With Altcoins performing poorly and BTC reaching a historic turning point in global monetary supply indicators (often signaling a strong upward trend), BTC once again approached $100,000 on the 8th and successfully broke through.
Technical Indicators: BTC Returns to 21-Week Moving Average and Breaks Fibonacci Resistance
By April 25th, BTC returned above the 21-week moving average at $87,199, providing a reasonable basis for buying bullish options, especially after breaking the Fibonacci resistance at $87,045 and accelerating ETF capital inflows. The confirmation of the moving average, Fibonacci breakthrough, and increased ETF capital inflows together constitute a robust tactical framework, allowing investors to effectively control risks while capturing BTC's upward potential.
Macro Background: Reduced Rate Cut Expectations
Over the past 18 months, global monetary policy has significantly altered capital flows into digital assets. With interest rates remaining high, traditional investors are reassessing risk allocations, making the Federal Reserve's communication strategy particularly crucial. The November FOMC meeting minutes released on December 7th, 2024, broke market expectations of four rate cuts in 2025, reducing the rate cut forecast to just two.
Market Sentiment: BTC Dominance Rises, Altcoin Market Lacks Narrative Drivers
On-chain data reveals the market's degree of differentiation. BTC's market dominance (measured by its proportion of the total crypto market capitalization) has risen from 49% in the early ETF era to the current 64.5%, a level not seen since the 2021 DeFi boom. This change reflects the highest risk-adjusted return among all major indicators in digital assets, showing a clear risk-averse tendency.
Meanwhile, retail investor sentiment remains subdued, with trading volumes on both centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols at multi-year lows. Due to the lack of compelling narrative drivers—no new disruptive DeFi applications, Layer-2 technological breakthroughs, or viral meme coin trends—retail investors are still waiting and watching. Since December 2024, Altcoin-related discussion topics on social media have dropped by over 40%, while BTC-related discussions remain high, reflecting continued market interest in BTC as a macro hedging asset.
With summer consolidation approaching and the absence of major catalysts, it will be difficult to form a sentiment-driven rally for Altcoins. Given that technical, macro, and market structural factors do not provide positive drivers for Altcoins, maintaining long positions on BTC through spot or perpetual futures and using Altcoin perpetual futures as a hedging tool or arbitrage method remains a viable strategy.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky, and investments require caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and instability. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
