Odaily星球日报讯 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，近期通胀预期指标上升，反映在市场和基于调查的指标上。包括消费者、企业和专业预测人士在内的受访者指出，关税是推动因素。然而，在明年左右之后，大多数长期预期指标仍与我们 2%的通胀目标保持一致。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，近期通胀预期指标上升，反映在市场和基于调查的指标上。包括消费者、企业和专业预测人士在内的受访者指出，关税是推动因素。然而，在明年左右之后，大多数长期预期指标仍与我们 2%的通胀目标保持一致。（金十）

鲍威尔谈近期通胀预期抬头：关税是主要因素

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that recent inflation expectation indicators have risen, reflected in market and survey-based indicators. Respondents, including consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters, pointed out that tariffs are a driving factor. However, most long-term expectation indicators remain consistent with our 2% inflation target around next year and beyond. (Jintian)

Powell on the recent rise in inflation expectations: Tariffs are the main factor

<Odaily>Odaily Planet Daily News</Odaily> - John Luke Tanner, an analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated that he expects Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to maintain his previous stance, likely emphasizing that policymakers need to see more data and are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Tanner said that given the still-high inflation and the seemingly good economic condition, Powell will not be "overly proactive in cutting rates in the future". Tanner is eager to hear comments about tariffs, especially their potential impact on prices. He added that after recent statements from the Trump administration, Powell might emphasize the Federal Reserve's independence. (Jintop)

Viewpoint: Powell will reiterate that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and emphasize the independence of the Federal Reserve

According to ChainCatcher, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote that Trump's tariff policy was chaotic, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: whether to address economic recession or stagflation. This week, the Fed officials' two-day policy meeting will focus on carefully communicating such difficult trade-offs.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach, refrain from cutting interest rates, and plan how to fine-tune this strategy. This "strategic patience" reflects the Fed officials' reluctance to prematurely abandon their commitment to fighting inflation.

The current challenge facing the Fed can be likened to a goalkeeper's dilemma: whether to "dive to the right" - maintaining interest rates to curb inflation, or "dive to the left" - lowering rates to address slowing economic growth. "We will make a judgment that is undoubtedly very difficult," Powell said last month.

If the Fed acts too early and tries to implement stimulus measures before an economic slowdown, it could exacerbate short-term inflationary pressures caused by tariffs or commodity shortages.

"This will not be a cycle where the Fed cuts rates early due to predicting an economic slowdown. They need to see actual signs of slowdown in the data, especially in the labor market," said Richard Clarida, who served as Powell's deputy for three years.

Fed spokesperson: Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach and decide not to cut interest rates for now

On May 7, JPMorgan Chase pointed out that when the Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting macroeconomic data, its final decisions often lag behind the situation. Trump is increasingly urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the Fed is in a difficult position. JPMorgan Chase analysts stated that it is almost impossible for the Fed to cut rates at its May policy meeting this week, and the likelihood of rate cuts in subsequent meetings is also low. JPMorgan Chase believes there are two reasons why Fed officials are constrained in monetary policy.

The first reason is that rising inflation expectations make it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. The latest consumer inflation report shows that inflation rose 2.4% year-on-year in March, higher than the Fed's 2% target. Compared to potential future scenarios, this number is still relatively low: the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectation is 6.5%. Trump's tariff policies are expected to increase consumer costs, which is the primary driver of significantly rising inflation expectations. Trade war concerns have exacerbated stagflation risks, namely the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a situation of stagnant growth and persistent price increases. In this scenario, the Fed is essentially caught in a dilemma, as it cannot address both issues simultaneously.

The second reason is that macroeconomic data has not yet shown the necessity of rate cuts. Currently, encouraging data masks inflation expectation issues, and macroeconomic data continues to remain robust, even showing relatively strong performance in some aspects. The surprisingly positive April non-farm employment report last Friday boosted investor confidence and drove stock market gains. In other words, the market has not priced in an imminent recession. JPMorgan Chase analysts wrote: "The S&P 500 (SPX) currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 10% this year and 14% next year. This is far from reflecting obvious concerns about a recession."