美联储前副主席：市场已将衰退的可能性定价在40%至50%之间

Odaily Planet Daily News: Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida stated that the market has priced in the possibility of an economic recession between 40% and 50%. (Jinshi)

Former Fed Vice Chairman: Markets have priced in a 40% to 50% chance of a recession

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate recovered from earlier losses after the rate resolution was announced. Currently, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points as early as June is 30%, slightly higher than the earlier 27%. According to futures prices, the likelihood of a rate cut by July is approximately 75%. (Jinshi)

The probability of a Fed rate cut in July is about 75%.

According to ChainCatcher, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "Fed's mouthpiece," wrote that Trump's tariff policy was chaotic, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: whether to address economic recession or stagflation. This week, the Fed officials' two-day policy meeting will focus on carefully communicating such difficult trade-offs.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach, refrain from cutting interest rates, and plan how to fine-tune this strategy. This "strategic patience" reflects the Fed officials' reluctance to prematurely abandon their commitment to fighting inflation.

The current challenge facing the Fed can be likened to a goalkeeper's dilemma: whether to "dive to the right" - maintaining interest rates to curb inflation, or "dive to the left" - lowering rates to address slowing economic growth. "We will make a judgment that is undoubtedly very difficult," Powell said last month.

If the Fed acts too early and tries to implement stimulus measures before an economic slowdown, it could exacerbate short-term inflationary pressures caused by tariffs or commodity shortages.

"This will not be a cycle where the Fed cuts rates early due to predicting an economic slowdown. They need to see actual signs of slowdown in the data, especially in the labor market," said Richard Clarida, who served as Powell's deputy for three years.

Fed spokesperson: Powell and his colleagues may continue to take a wait-and-see approach and decide not to cut interest rates for now

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: According to CME "Federal Reserve Watch" data, with 1 day and 17 hours remaining until the next FOMC meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May is only 2.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 97.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 69.8%, with a 29.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, and a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.