Prelude: The Golden Fantasy and the Undercurrent of Bitcoin
In May 2025, financial elites in Manhattan, New York, are holding their breath as they observe the "super monthly line" formed after gold prices broke through $3,500. This hard asset carnival, triggered by the resonance of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, geopolitical fractures, and US dollar credit loosening, prompts Wall Street to re-examine an ancient proposition: When gold breaks through the $5,000 skyline, how will Bitcoin, dubbed "digital gold," respond?
In the gold bull camp, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research and hedge fund patriarch John Paulson's predictions are like signal flares - they assert that gold will break through $5,000 or even aim for $6,000, with the epic narrative of US dollar depreciation and global central banks' "de-dollarization" accelerating. Meanwhile, Bitcoin enthusiasts are marking even crazier coordinates on the K-line chart: $155,000, $285,000, and even $400,000. This war over the dominance of value storage media is essentially an ultimate experiment about "scarcity pricing rights".
Chapter One: Replication and Mutation of Historical Scripts
1.1 The "Six-Fold Rule" of Gold and Bitcoin
XAU/USD and BTC/USD Weekly Chart with Global M2 Supply. Source: TradingView
Tracing back from March 2020 to March 2022, the Federal Reserve's "unlimited QE" policy pushed global M2 money supply up by 23%, with gold rising 35.5% during this period, while Bitcoin surged by 1,110%, leaving precious metals far behind - with a gap in growth reaching 31 times. In the more recent cycle from November 2022 to November 2023, gold's 25% increase was again crushed by Bitcoin's 150% violent surge, forming a 6-fold growth differential.
The underlying logic of this "digital asset amplifier effect" lies in the structural difference between Bitcoin's rigid supply (fixed total of 21 million) and gold's elastic mining (approximately 3,000 tons added annually). When global liquidity gates open, funds tend to flow into assets with stronger deflationary properties. Based on the current gold price of $3,265, if it rises 50% to $5,000, following the historical 6-fold increase, Bitcoin's theoretical target price would point to $285,000.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the rest of the text, maintaining the specified translations for technical terms and preserving the XML tags.]- $285,000: Power law model target based on gold market capitalization
- $400,000: Extreme value of computing power growth curve resonating with halving cycle
But the deeper revelation is: While gold builds a "physical moat" with millennia of consensus, Bitcoin is writing the code for a "digital Babel Tower" with blockchain technology. The ultimate confrontation between them may have no losers - in the twilight of the fiat currency system, they together constitute a "twin star defense line" against monetary depreciation.
