BlockBeats on May 4th, BiyaPay analyst: Bitcoin may experience a historic breakthrough in May, challenging the key resistance level of $100,000. The core factors driving this market trend include massive institutional fund inflows into ETFs, halving cycle effects, and macroeconomic hedging demands.
From April 20th to 26th, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $3.1 billion, creating a weekly record. BlackRock's IBIT fund size has surpassed its gold ETF, becoming the primary channel for traditional capital entry. Standard Chartered Bank noted that Bitcoin is replacing gold as a new hedging option, with the ETF fund absorption effect being significant, forming an "institutional bottom, retail follow-up" pattern.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically experiences an explosive rise within 12-18 months after halving. After the 2020 halving, prices rose by 536%. Analysts predict the peak of this cycle may occur in May 2025, with a target price of $156,000. If $100,000 is breached in May, it could trigger accelerated market FOMO sentiment.
Additionally, US dollar weakness and US Treasury risks have also boosted Bitcoin's hedging demand. Market volatility in early April due to "tariff policy" rumors demonstrated its sensitivity to macro risks. The derivatives market shows divergence, with retail funding rates becoming cautious, but two-month futures premiums rising to 6.5%, with institutions continuing to increase positions. MicroStrategy added 15,000 Bitcoins during the week at an average price of $92,700, highlighting long-term confidence.
Simultaneously, technical independence is strengthening. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has dropped to 29%, reinforcing its "digital gold" attributes. Continued ETF fund inflows may accumulate energy for a breakthrough. If ETF funds start to flow out, it will test market resilience. Analysts recommend investors focus on on-chain data and institutional movements, avoiding high-leverage chasing. Currently, the market is awaiting verification during the critical May window, with dual momentum from institutions and cycles potentially reshaping crypto asset valuation systems.
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