Odaily星球日报讯 美国多个经济数据公布，小非农断崖式暴跌、美国一季度 GDP 出现收缩，现 CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储 5 月维持利率不变的概率为 92.3%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 7.7%。美联储到 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 35.1%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 60.2%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 4.8%。

Odaily星球日报讯 美国多个经济数据公布，小非农断崖式暴跌、美国一季度 GDP 出现收缩，现 CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储 5 月维持利率不变的概率为 92.3%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 7.7%。美联储到 6 月维持利率不变的概率为 35.1%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 60.2%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 4.8%。

美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为92.3%

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Multiple U.S. economic data were released, with a cliff-like plunge in small non-farm payrolls and a contraction in U.S. first-quarter GDP. Currently, the CME "Federal Reserve Watch" shows a 92.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in May, with a 7.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until June is 35.1%, with a 60.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut and a 4.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 92.3%.

Odaily Planet Daily News: According to market information, traders have fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates four times by 25 basis points before the end of 2025. (Jinshi)

Traders fully price in four 25 basis point rate cuts by the Fed by the end of 2025

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Senior Economist Melanie Baker from London Royal Asset Management stated in her report that she still expects the Federal Reserve to conduct two interest rate cuts in 2025, but not before the second half of the year, when the economy is expected to show more clear signs of slowdown. She pointed out that recession risks have increased, and the economic growth prospects for both the global economy and the United States have deteriorated. However, she currently remains in the "economic slowdown" camp rather than the "economic recession" camp, as tariff parity has been suspended and there are indications that Trump is responding to market pressures. (Jintian)

Economist: The Fed will cut interest rates twice in the second half of this year

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