How Many Customers Do the Four Major Brokerages Have
According to a report from The Block, Bitwise's CIO Matt Hougan recently stated that he expects the four major full-service broker-dealers in the United States—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS—to "open for business" by the end of 2025, allowing their financial advisors to allocate Bit spot ETFs for clients.
The four brokerages manage over $10 trillion in customer assets, and their entry is seen as a key step for Bit ETFs entering the mainstream investment arena. Since the SEC approved the first Bit spot ETFs in early 2024, while attracting significant attention and initial capital inflows, the primary buyer groups have been independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) and retail investors. Major brokerage platforms have not yet opened access to these new products due to their strict internal due diligence processes and compliance considerations.
Hougan noted that the inclusion of these large platforms could increase the accessibility of Bit ETFs by about four times. Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has expressed a similar view, believing that the adoption by major brokerage platforms is one of the two main catalysts for future Bit ETF capital inflows (the other being the development of ETF-based options products).
Bit Market Delayed but Expectations Unchanged
It's worth noting that the timeline for major brokerages to accept Bit ETFs seems to be later than initially expected. Hougan himself and analysts like Balchunas previously anticipated that the first brokerage platform approvals might occur in the first half of 2024.
The reality is that the internal approval processes of these large institutions are more complex and time-consuming than anticipated. Hougan described it as a process of navigating through a series of "small passageways" to enable most of America's wealth management funds to invest in these new products. These processes involve risk assessment, compliance review, investor suitability analysis, and providing training and tools for financial advisors.
Despite the delay, Hougan remains confident about achieving a breakthrough by the end of the year. He anticipates that once these internal barriers are cleared, these platforms will gradually open trading permissions for Bit ETFs.
We initially thought we were just weeks, or even a week away from the first major brokerage approval.
(March 2024)
Optimistic About 2025 Capital Inflow: Potential Record-Breaking Momentum
Based on the expected entry of major brokerages, Matt Hougan made an optimistic prediction about Bit ETF capital inflows in 2025. Although the inflow rate from early 2025 to now has slowed compared to the same period in 2024, he still expects the cumulative net inflow of Bit spot ETFs to reach a historical high by the end of 2025.
Hougan previously predicted (in February 2025) that total inflows might exceed $50 billion. He compared the growth trajectory of Bit ETFs to gold ETFs, which saw their annual inflow more than double in their second year (2005) after being launched in 2004. He believes that with increased institutional investor allocation to Bit and the opening of traditional wealth management channels, Bit ETFs are also poised to experience a second, potentially stronger wave of capital.
Standard Chartered Bank has also raised its Bit price target for this year. Analysts believe it could reach $120,000 this year, and Bernstein has made an even more positive estimate, suggesting Bit could reach $200,000 this year, with institutions making positive predictions about Bit's prospects in the second half of the year.
