Bernstein: Bitcoin will hit new highs as companies increase holdings and ETF "supply crunch" intensifies

Odaily Planet News This year, Bitcoin's price narrative has been fluctuating between "gold" and "Nasdaq" correlations. However, Bernstein analysts believe that short-term correlations are highly misleading. Key indicators such as retail selling exhaustion, corporate accumulation, and ETF fund inflows may drive "supply tightening" and push prices to new highs. Last week, Twenty One Capital announced an initial accumulation of 42,000 BTC (approximately $4 billion), joining companies like Strategy in the competition. Currently, about 80 companies collectively hold 700,000 BTC, representing 3.4% of the total supply. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $3 billion last week, a five-month high, with total holdings accounting for 5.5% of Bitcoin's circulating supply. Institutional share increased from 20% in September last year to 33%, with 48% held by investment advisors, reflecting asset allocation needs. Combined with corporate holdings, institutional capital now controls 9% of BTC supply. If the U.S. government implements strategic reserves, it may trigger a race among sovereign nations to stockpile. Exchange BTC balance has dropped from 16% at the end of 2023 to 13%, though some assets have merely been transferred to ETF custodians. Bernstein analysts estimate Bitcoin will reach a cycle peak of around $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by the end of 2029, and $1 million by the end of 2033, with intermittent one-year bear markets in between. (The Block)