Written by: Drop Gorn
Translated by: Daisy, Mars Finance
BTC surged to $95,490, with the market holding its breath awaiting Trump's hundred-day governance speech. Over the past week, investors withdrew over $4 billion BTC from exchanges, releasing a strong bullish signal.
Trump's policy combination—including the potential establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and restarting tariff threats—is creating a landscape of opportunities and risks. As the stock market faces pressure, Bitcoin is benefiting from growing hedging demand.
On-chain data shows a sharp decline in Bitcoin exchange reserves, and if market momentum and supply tightening continue, conditions for breaking the $100,000 mark are maturing.
Strong Rebound on Monday
BTC strongly rebounded to $95,490 on Monday, just as the market prepares for Trump's hundred-day speech. As cryptocurrency-specific policy announcements approach, investors are beginning to adjust their positions—with on-chain data already showing signs.
Driving Force Above $95,000
CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin rose 0.8% in 24 hours, reaching $95,490.92. During Monday's trading session, BTC oscillated between $92,953 and $95,490, maintaining recent upward momentum. Weekly performance is also robust, rising 8.9% from the previous Monday, with a cumulative increase of about 15% over the past 30 days. The crypto market is closely watching whether Trump will provide a clear stance on the rumored Bitcoin strategic reserve proposal.
Major Fund Migration
In the week following Trump's controversial call for rate cuts, over $4 billion in Bitcoin flowed out of exchanges. Investors are apparently moving tokens to cold wallets, which is typically a precursor to price appreciation.
Crypto Effect of Trump's First Hundred Days
Bitcoin's current rally is not an isolated event—it is moving in sync with US stocks, especially tech giant stocks, as the market tries to predict signals from Trump's speech. Analysts say if Trump officially supports a Bitcoin reserve, it could trigger a parabolic rise to $100,000. Conversely, if focus shifts too much to tariffs or severe budget cuts, it could impact the overall market and limit Bitcoin's short-term upside.
TradingEconomics data shows inflation has dropped from 9.1% in 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025. Trump quickly credits himself, but economists warn his pro-tariff policies could reignite inflationary pressures.
Rate Cut Expectations Cool Down
Despite Trump's strong push for rate cuts and even threatening to replace Fed Chair Powell, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 90.1% probability of maintaining rates at the May 7th meeting. In short: the market has heard Trump's demands but isn't buying in.
Asset Rotation Under Tariff Clouds
Trump's continued tariff rhetoric continues to hit US stocks, especially tech stocks dubbed the "Magnificent Seven", and this uncertainty actually benefits Bitcoin—its "digital gold" hedging attributes are gaining recognition.
In comparison, Bitcoin has risen 5.6% this year, while Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones have all fallen 5%. Investors fleeing volatile traditional financial markets are beginning to favor Bitcoin's relative strength.
$100,000 in Sight?
The geopolitical tensions and market anxiety during Trump's first hundred days unexpectedly became a Bitcoin tailwind. BTC's defense of the $90,000 mark amid the noise is significant, demonstrating resilience and preserving hope of reaching $100,000.
CryptoQuant on-chain data reveals key trends:
Bitcoin exchange reserves have decreased by over $4 billion since April 22
Weekly deposit scale dropped sharply from $237.8 billion to $233.8 billion
Potential supply tightening is forming
If demand remains hot while available supply continues to shrink, Bitcoin's breakthrough to six digits might come earlier than most expect.
