Trading time: Tonight, the US GDP and the upcoming non-farm data will become the market focus. Institutions are bullish on BTC to $120,000 in the second quarter.

1. Market Observation

Keywords: ALPACA, MIKAMI, BTC

With the May Day holiday approaching, the US will release Q1 2025 GDP data tonight, which will be an important assessment of the economic situation during the early Trump administration. Morgan Stanley lowered its Q1 GDP forecast from zero growth to a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, Goldman Sachs adjusted from -0.2% to -0.8%, and JPMorgan adjusted to -1.75%. Under the wave of panic buying triggered by Trump's tariff threats, corporate imports surged, leading to an expanded trade deficit. Analysts believe that hoarding before tariffs distorted economic data, and actual damage may be exaggerated. Additionally, the US non-farm employment data will be released on May 2nd, becoming another market focus. Economists warn that the tariff war launched by the Trump administration could cause severe labor market volatility, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June. Apollo's chief economist Slok predicts that the US labor market may significantly weaken in the coming months. The market generally believes that tariff disputes could exacerbate inflation, increase unemployment rates, and even trigger an economic recession.

Bitcoin has been oscillating around $94,000-$95,000 for a week, returning above the short-term holder cost basis (around $92,900). Currently, most institutions are optimistic about Bitcoin. Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicts Bitcoin could reach a historical high of around $120,000 in the second quarter. Bernstein analysts believe now is a buying opportunity, maintaining a year-end target of $200,000, and predicting Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by the end of 2029 and $1 million by the end of 2033. This optimism resonates with MicroStrategy's recent $1.42 billion large-scale purchase - the company bought 15,355 Bitcoins at an average price of $92,737. Additionally, Japanese fashion brand ANAP, US real estate company Cardone Capital, and Brazil's largest commercial bank Itaú have recently announced joining the Bitcoin reserve lineup. Notably, Trump's "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" executive order will reach a critical point on May 5th. QCP Capital analysis suggests that this capital inflow led by traditional financial institutions makes the current market trend more sustainable.

Binance's recently launched Alpha points system has become a new battlefield for airdrop hunters. However, project launch speed is increasing, and point acquisition difficulty is gradually rising. Recently launched projects like Sign, MilkyWay, Haedal Protocol, and B² Network have players exclaiming "it's getting harder". The market speculates that Binance's move must have high-level guidance. Additionally, ALPACA is staging a "dying struggle" before being delisted from Binance on May 2nd, with price volatility and liquidations becoming the norm - nearly $40 million liquidated within 24 hours. After the BONK project launched Letsbonk.Fun, NFT whale dingaling is about to launch the boop.fun platform, attempting to continue community frenzy with promises of an airdrop at launch. Japanese adult film actress Yua Mikami, after launching an NFT, has now issued a meme coin MIKAMI, explicitly stating it's not targeting the Japanese market. Historically, similar actress-launched coin projects often end in failure, and the market remains cautious about its prospects.