The market, project, currency, and other information, views, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
This week, BTC opened at $85,177.33 and closed at $93,780.57, rising 10.10% for the week with a volatility of 12.73%, achieving three consecutive rebounds with increased volume. On Monday, it strongly broke through the key 120-day moving average and remained above it throughout the week, showing a strong long intention.
Trump's "reciprocal tariff war" is in the second stage of "negotiation". The White House continues to release positive progress signals, while the other negotiating party remains vague, indicating that the negotiation results are not clear.
Trump clearly stated that he would not dismiss Powell, which has diluted the market's trading theme in recent weeks about the Federal Reserve's independence being damaged and the potential "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and exchange rates causing greater chaos in the US economy and finance. Stocks, bonds, and exchange rates have stabilized and rebounded.
The Federal Reserve has released positive signals externally. Cleveland Fed President and 2026 FOMC voter Beth Hamark stated that the Fed has the ability to act quickly if the situation changes. Fed Governor Waller also said that if the job market seriously declines, it might prompt the Fed to push for more and faster rate cuts.
The performance of global markets, especially the US financial trading market in the past few weeks, fully proves the irrationality and arbitrariness of the "reciprocal tariff war" and its huge impact on the world economic system. The compromise taken by Trump and the Federal Reserve to address the "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and exchange rates indicates what we mentioned in last week's report about "politics, economy, and markets running rationally in the medium and long term".
However, it needs to be noted that the market rebound is a temporary elimination of concerns about a potential market crash and economic recession caused by the "reciprocal tariff war". The further market trend will depend on whether the "reciprocal tariff war" can end in time and whether the US economy will truly head towards recession. Based on this judgment, the ongoing Q1 financial report disclosure appears particularly important.
Policies, Macro Finance, and Economic Data
In statements by President Trump and his staff, the reciprocal tariff war is making good progress, especially negotiations with China, with Trump expressing confidence in reaching a mutually satisfactory agreement. However, the Chinese government directly points out that no negotiations have been conducted.
Countries actually in negotiations include Japan and South Korea, with a high probability of reaching conditions favorable to the US, and the degree of "conceding interests" will serve as a demonstration for other countries.
The truly difficult US-China negotiations show no signs of entering actual consultation. Therefore, the second stage of the "reciprocal tariff war" has just begun and is far from achieving significant progress. This constrains the time and space of the market rebound, making it difficult to be optimistic in the short term.
Powell's speech this week focused on the inflation and economic uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff policies, setting the tone for the upcoming May monetary policy meeting and reaffirming the Fed's independence.
His tone remained consistent - policy driven by data, maintaining interest rate stability. He will not yield to political pressure for rate cuts but hints that policies might adjust if inflation or employment data significantly changes. Other Fed members' statements emphasized more of the "dovish" side, suggesting the possibility of a June rate cut.
As of the weekend, the CME FedWatch board shows a 62.7% probability of a June rate cut. With the market rebound, this probability has noticeably declined compared to the past two weeks.
On April 23, the Federal Reserve Beige Book revealed that 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts reported economic activity as "essentially unchanged", with overall economic growth slowing. Only a few districts (such as Atlanta and Dallas) reported slight growth, while districts like Boston and Chicago reflected deteriorating economic prospects.
The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach.
