Author: WOO X Research
Bitcoin returned to the 90,000 mark on April 23, partly due to the gradually clarifying tariff war situation, with US Treasury Secretary Besent stating that the tariff deadlock is unsustainable and expected to ease in the near future.
On the other hand, Trump has been continuously pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, strongly demanding interest rate cuts, even suggesting he would fire Powell if rates are not lowered. This has made the global market doubt the Fed's independence, thereby triggering distrust in the US dollar. The latest situation is that when media asked Trump about this matter, he stated: "I have no intention of firing him. I just hope he can be more proactive about interest rate cuts."
Previously, when Trump demanded Powell's resignation, Bitcoin rarely performed its "digital gold" hedging function, with its trend highly correlated to physical gold. Now, with Powell's career crisis resolved and US stocks rebounding sharply, Bitcoin continues to rise, enjoying the liquidity asset premium dividend, rising 12% in the past seven days.
In our previous article, we mentioned that during this Bitcoin rally, Altcoins have not followed suit, with Bitcoin's market dominance reaching 64.2%, a four-year high. While it's still uncertain when the Altcoin season will arrive, we can observe which Altcoins perform stronger during market volatility to identify fund preferences that may potentially continue their strong momentum.
Top 100 Market Cap Tokens Outperforming BTC in the Past Seven Days
The following table lists tokens in the top 100 market cap that have performed better than BTC in the past seven days. In fact, there are more than the 11 tokens listed, as Bitcoin's market dominance slightly dropped (0.2%) on April 23 while Bitcoin surged, indicating a general rise in Altcoins. Many previously long-declining tokens suddenly outperformed Bitcoin's seven-day gains, but this rise should be interpreted as liquidity spillover rather than a result of fund selection.
Therefore, in token selection, we excluded overnight surge tokens and focused on Altcoins that have steadily outperformed BTC over these seven days.
Which Tracks Should Be Focused On?
Intersecting from the above tokens, the key focus will be on: AI, L1, MEME, and DeFi
AI: The previous narrative was initiated by AI, starting from the combination of GOAT and meme, then exploring more possibilities and applications. The AI frenzy brought a bubble, which burst after the Trump family's consecutive token launches, with most AI tokens dropping over 90% and resetting valuations.
The bubble bursting doesn't mean the end of the track, but a mechanism to eliminate mixed-quality projects. This means that with the continuous development of Web 2 AI, Web 3 AI projects have gone through a round of reshuffling. If one believes Web 2 AI can be transmitted to Web3, then the AI track's valuation is relatively cheap now, and the remaining projects have been tested in their fundamentals. If the Altcoin season arrives, this track may be able to absorb the liquidity spillover from Bitcoin.
Representative tokens outside the table: VIRTUAL, ARC, ALCH, SWARMS, Zerebro
L1: Public chain tokens have always been a relatively stable choice when the Altcoin season arrives. The overall logic is that the development of a public chain determines the ceiling of its ecosystem projects and can capture the most liquidity.
However, unlike 2021, funds are no longer paying for "EVM replication with a label" but seeking public chains with real TPS and developer tools that can bring new applications. Once catalysis (exchange listing, institutional custody) occurs, price elasticity will be significantly higher than for old L1 chains.
Emerging public chains without tokens: Monad, MegaETH
MEME: Bitcoin itself is the largest meme coin in the crypto space. Meme coins have become a prominent trend in this cycle and are likely to continue surviving. The key factor is that meme coins are carriers of consensus and culture. Top meme coins of each public chain can be seen as leveraged public chain tokens. Most meme coins are native to the chain, with pricing rights not monopolized by centralized exchanges, making wealth effects easily possible. In the crypto space, wherever there's a wealth effect, there will be continuous liquidity and participants.
DeFi: In the crypto space, DeFi is a rare track with a genuine business model. Perp Dex and Dex earn transaction fees; lending earns interest spreads; Yield Farming earns deposit and withdrawal fees; LaunchPad earns token issuance fees. The tokens in the table like HYPE, JUP, and AAVE are all leaders in the DeFi field. More importantly, they all have token buyback mechanisms. As the Altcoin season arrives and liquidity recovers, increasing transaction volumes, top DeFi protocols with network effects will drive overall project profitability. Higher profitability means stronger buyback power, and as token demand increases, the probability of sustained price increases also rises.
Conclusion: Closely Monitor Bitcoin Market Dominance
The start of the Altcoin season means funds flowing from Bitcoin to riskier, smaller-cap Altcoins. Therefore, two key indicators to observe are: first, whether Bitcoin can stabilize above 90,000 to provide a stable market confidence anchor; second, and more importantly, whether Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D) begins to decline, reflecting the spread of fund preferences.
On April 23, Bitcoin surged to 90,000, but BTC.D only slightly dropped 0.2%, indicating we're still in a stage of "funds concentrated in BTC, steadily growing." However, if BTC.D starts to decline significantly, such as returning to the 57% level from early this year, it will signal funds officially spilling into the Altcoin market, and a "rotation market" might fully unfold.
In other words, the true starting point of the Altcoin season is not just Bitcoin continuously reaching new highs, but also a process of rising risk appetite and funds spreading from BTC to other thematic tracks. Only when these two occur simultaneously can we see a comprehensive market activation. Now is the time to observe, screen, and position. Whether the Altcoin boom arrives, BTC.D's trend will provide the answer.
