Author: Alfred, Trend Research
I. Gradual Improvement in Macro and Crypto Market
1. Signs of Tariff Easing
The short-term direct emotional impact and risk-averse trading brought by Trump's tariff policy have subsided, and market volatility has decreased. Trump publicly spoke on Tuesday (April 22) local time, acknowledging that the current tariffs on imported goods from China are too high, and tax rates are expected to be significantly reduced. This marks a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy.
2. Expectations of Interest Rate Loosening
Currently, CME interest rate futures imply rate cuts starting from June, with a total of 3 cuts within the year. This may inject new liquidity into the market.
3. Crypto-Friendly Policies Gradually Implemented
Since Trump took office, the crypto market has been a key industry he aims to develop, intending to create a new "US dollar hegemony" system. (1) On March 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to officially establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" and "US Digital Asset Reserve". The plan is currently being promoted, and dozens of US states are advancing Bitcoin state reserve bills, with Arizona expected to submit to the governor's signature after the final third reading.
(2) The US is currently promoting two stablecoin bills: the GENIUS Act (Guidance and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) and the STABLE Act (Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability to Promote the Local Economy). Both proposals have been put forward in their respective committees and are expected to pass. The industry generally anticipates that the final bill may be passed and implemented in the second half of 2025, depending on the speed of coordination between the two houses and the president's attitude.
(3) On April 22, Paul Atkins, nominated by Trump, officially replaced Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman. Atkins is considered a crypto-friendly regulator, expected to reduce enforcement actions against crypto companies and promote industry innovation.
4. BTC Shifts from Short to Long
Since mid-March, BTC has performed better than US stocks, showing some safe-haven attributes similar to gold. Around April 8, BTC's RSI and MACD showed bottom divergence, combined with sentiment indicators reaching extreme fear levels, forming a recent bottom. Currently, the MACD fast and slow lines are above the zero axis, with market trends shifting from short to long.
II. ETH May Lead Altcoins in Trend Reversal
1. On-chain Data: ETH has experienced a long decline of 5 months since December 2024, with profitable address numbers dropping to lower bear market levels, continuing to be oversold, and currently entering a critical support-resistance exchange interval with the crypto market's recovery.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and precise approach, maintaining the technical cryptocurrency terminology and style.]Candles 2 and 3 present a Bullish Engulfing pattern [A Bullish Engulfing pattern consists of two candlesticks, with the previous one being a red candle and the latter being a green candle, where the green candle's body completely covers the body of the previous red candle. This pattern typically appears in a downtrend and is considered a signal that the market trend may reverse upward]. This indicates that the bullish forces in the market are beginning to regain dominance after a period of suppression, suggesting that the market may be about to usher in an upward trend.
(2) Moving Average
ETH price has been running below the 20-day EMA (red line) for a long time, and yesterday it strongly broke through EMA20, suggesting a potential trend reversal. One can observe whether the candlesticks in the past 2-3 days can stabilize above EMA20 for further confirmation.
(3) MACD & Momentum
A very obvious daily-level MACD and momentum divergence can be observed, where the price makes a new low, but the indicator does not make a new low, indicating a weakening of bearish forces and possibly signaling the end of the downward trend. Meanwhile, the MACD fast line crossed above the slow line on April 13, forming a golden cross and providing a potential buying point.
(4) RSI & MFI
The Relative Strength Index and Money Flow Index both entered the oversold zone on April 8.
III. Altcoin Opportunity Mining
Recently, with the crypto market's overall trend warming up, BTC strongly broke through a key resistance level, and ETH rose to an important support-resistance conversion point, leading a group of followers to show signs of reversal with the market's recovery. Some targets achieved surprising gains, with the meme track's NEIROETH rising over 210% in 3 days. The AI track showed the largest overall gains, with ZEREBRO rising over 200% in 3 days. Both targets showed data anomalies at the contract level and presented a further upward trend. This article will analyze these two targets from different tracks that topped the gains list.
1. NEIROETH
(1) Project Introduction
NEIROETH (Neiro on Ethereum) is a Meme coin based on Ethereum, inspired by Neiro, a Shiba Inu dog adopted by Kabosu's owner on July 28, 2024. NEIROETH has been trying to attract community attention through its cultural association with Dogecoin.
Concurrent with NEIROETH is NEIRO (First Neiro on Ethereum), both launched successively and claiming the legitimate spirit and community of Shiba Inu Neiro, sparking the famous "NEIRO Capitalization Dispute". Ultimately, NEIRO was listed on Binance spot and futures, while NEIROETH was only listed on Binance futures, but both are MEME projects driven by massive communities.
(2) Token Basic Information
NEIROETH currently has a market cap of around $61 million, with a total supply of 1 billion, fully circulating with no team reserves.
24h spot trading volume is $35 million, mainly concentrated on Bybit (30.65%) and Gate (29.38%). In spot chip distribution, the top three holding exchanges are Bybit (26.84%), Gate (12.67%), and Bitget (5.25%). Two unmarked whale addresses hold 6.86% and 5.11% respectively, with market maker Wintermute holding 6.52%, reflecting that the token's main chips are distributed among mid-tier exchanges, some whales, and market makers. Bybit, the top holder, controls chips worth $15.16 million.
24h contract trading volume is $843 million, 24 times the spot volume, mainly concentrated on Binance, OKX, and Bybit. The 24-hour contract trading volume growth for these three exchanges was 38.48%, 27.16%, and 50.45% respectively, with 24-hour open interest growth of 121%, 99.7%, and 104.2%. These data reflect that NEIROETH's main trading market is currently the contract market, with recent anomalies. Simultaneously, its token price has seen a surprising gain, rising over 200% in 3 days.
(3) Contract Analysis
Based on the above data, it's not difficult to see that NEIROETH's contract trading is currently very active, with high total open interest, OI/MC over 13.8 times, indicating sufficient counterparty and potential profit sources in the contract market.
Source: Coinglass
Breaking down detailed indicators, according to Coinglass data, NEIROETH's current network aggregated long-short ratio is 1.05, with long and short counterparty positions roughly equal. On Binance with the best liquidity, the account number long-short ratio is 0.5576, and the large account long-short ratio is 1.919, reflecting more short accounts overall, but large accounts holding more long positions. Looking at contract CVD growth, net long positions have been continuously rising in the past 4 days, showing an overall bullish trend. From the latest data, 24h long liquidations are $384,700, while short liquidations are $3,037,500, mainly liquidating short positions.
2. ZEREBRO
(1) Project Introduction:
ZEREBRO is an artificial intelligence system that can create, distribute, and analyze content on decentralized and social platforms. Its native token is deployed on Solana, with digital artworks minted on Polygon.
ZEREBRO has demonstrated its advancement as an AI agent through autonomous actions in multiple domains, including social, artistic, and financial autonomy, with specific achievements such as:
• Autonomously launching a token on Solana's Pump.fun, with market cap peaking over $400 million.
• Attracting over 30,000 fans on Telegram, Warpcast, X (formerly Twitter), and Instagram.
• Released a remix album called 'Genesis' with over 20,000 plays on Spotify.
• Signed with music DAO Opaium to further expand in the art field.
(2) Token Basic Information
Total token supply is 1 billion, issued in December 2024, fully circulating with a market cap of $76.85 million.
Among the top ten holding addresses, exchanges are the main token holders, with 6 exchanges holding about 38% of the tokens. An additional 4 addresses collectively hold 12%. The chip distribution is relatively dispersed.
(3) Contract Analysis
As of April 23, the 24-hour open interest rose over 300%, totaling $48 million, with OI/MC around 65%; trading volume increased 782%, driving a 165% price increase.
Contract CVD continues to rise, in a strong position. Spot CVD has declined, with insufficient upward momentum. The funding rate is positive, higher than usual, indicating significant funds are establishing long positions. Open interest has experienced rapid growth and remains at a high level, with no significant reduction in positions. The large account long-short ratio is 1.4, with large accounts being bullish. The long-short position account ratio is 0.45, with big money being bullish. Looking at the active buy-sell amount (difference), dense buying occurred around April 23 early morning, with relatively few sells.
IV. Summary
Under the background of improved macro environment and BTC breaking through a key position, this article focused on the "King of Altcoins" ETH's various data. From on-chain data, contract situation, and technical analysis, ETH is currently at a critical support-resistance conversion point and may usher in a favorable trend reversal if it breaks through. Additionally, in this market, one should focus on altcoins with data anomalies. Based on chip structure and contract data, this article dissected the upward logic of NEIROETH and ZEREBRO. Under the trend, more crypto market increases are about to come.
