The global financial market is like alpine skiing, where even a small snowflake could trigger an avalanche. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes released a new long article on April 23, 2025, comparing his skiing experience in Hokkaido to the financial market risks triggered by the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policy. He believes that this "Tariff Ski Cut" caused severe bond market volatility, and the emergency response from the US Treasury and Federal Reserve has established a bull market bottom for Bitcoin. This article is a summary of the key points and analysis of his perspective.
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ToggleTariff Policy Like Avalanche Trigger Test: Trump Uses Global Market as Experiment
In skiing terminology, "ski cut" is a high-risk testing method aimed at checking whether a snow slope is unstable and might cause an avalanche. Arthur Hayes believes that Trump's new tariff policy implemented on April 2nd is such a test, except the experimental site has shifted from a snow slope to the global financial market. This "Tariff Liberation Day" not only shocked the market but also pushed the US-China confrontation to a new high, causing a double kill in global stock and bond markets.
Bond Market Volatility is the True Source of Market Fear
Although asset price declines caused short-term panic, Hayes points out that what truly makes the market anxious is the surge in US bond market volatility, with the MOVE Index climbing close to historical extreme levels. Such high volatility levels not only crush market confidence but could also trigger a chain of margin calls for hedge funds, leading to a liquidity crisis.
Policy Reversal: Treasury and Federal Reserve Collaborate on Covert QE
The market underwent a dramatic reversal within a week. Trump urgently slowed down tariff measures, targeting only China; simultaneously, the Boston Federal Reserve Bank president made a market-stabilizing speech. The real key came from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who announced a large-scale Treasury repurchase program, leading the market to believe this was the beginning of a new round of disguised easing. Hayes believes these actions represent a policy attitude shift from "everything is fine" to "we're doomed, let's do something quickly".
Treasury Repurchase: Fuel Supply Station for Leveraged Funds
The logic behind Treasury repurchase is that the Treasury buys back illiquid old bonds from the market by issuing new bonds. This move is favorable for hedge funds engaged in "Basis Trade" as they can lock in profits in advance and re-enter the market with larger positions. This operation does not directly increase the Federal Reserve's balance sheet but creates massive leverage space for the market, equivalent to "covert QE".
Hayes: Bitcoin Has Bottomed, Next Stop $110,000+
Hayes explicitly stated that he and Maelstrom Fund have completed a massive position increase in Bitcoin during its drop from $110,000 to $74,500, viewing this price level as the "bottom range of this bull market". The reason is not just technical but also supported by macroeconomic policy logic. He stated: "Future US dollar supply will expand again, and Bitcoin is the most direct beneficiary."
How to Handle Altcoins? Alt Season Approaching?
After Bitcoin reaches a new high, funds are expected to rotate to token projects with actual profit mechanisms. Hayes stated that Maelstrom has already laid out multiple high-quality projects that can return profits to stakers, and these crypto tokens that can "earn money and pay dividends" will be the main force in the next outbreak.
Key Dates: Observation Points on May 1st and Mid-May
Hayes reminds investors to closely watch the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) by the U.S. Treasury on May 1st and the tax season income data in mid-May. If these two data points show an expanding deficit, it will further confirm that the market is about to see more government bond supply and implicit QE operations, which will provide structural bullish support for Bitcoin and high-quality Altcoins.
Bitcoin Will No Longer Be Just a Tech Stock Shadow, But a True Monetary Hedge Asset
Hayes stated: "Bitcoin will shed its label as a Nasdaq High Beta and once again embrace the 'Up Only' market environment with gold." As policy pressures in the Trump style mount, the U.S. bond market needs more repurchase tools to stabilize the leverage chain, and Bitcoin will be the most solid hedging vehicle in this monetary bubble game.
Risk Warning
Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, and its price may fluctuate dramatically. You may lose all your principal. Please carefully assess the risks.
