Standard Chartered's Global Crypto Assets Research Head Geoffrey Kendrick believes that despite BTC strengthening its position as a hedging tool in recent weeks, its price does not yet reflect the increasingly apparent systemic risk indicators.
In a client report on April 22, Kendrick warned that the political pressure facing the Federal Reserve is intensifying bond market tensions, which could soon spread to the Crypto asset market.
He noted that the 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium has risen to its highest level in 12 years, reflecting growing market concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and particularly the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Kendrick stated: "The current actions threatening the Federal Reserve's independence through a possible replacement of Powell are entirely within the realm of government-related risks. BTC should quickly reflect this shift."
Kendrick categorized BTC as a hedge against two different types of systemic threats: one being private sector collapse, such as the Silicon Valley Bank failure in 2023, and the other being public sector credibility impacts, like central bank interventions or sovereign debt concerns.
Kendrick emphasized that while BTC typically performs as a risk asset under normal conditions, its true function emerges during macro stress events. He added that the recent term premium surge is an indicator of long-term inflation and interest rate risks, representing the type of environment where BTC historically reestablishes its hedging narrative.
Kendrick also pointed out a recent divergence: while term premiums have significantly increased in recent weeks, BTC price remains stagnant below $100,000. He attributed this lag to investors temporarily focusing on trade-related concerns, including technology sector tariffs, which have weakened BTC's response.
He wrote: "Due to investors' temporary focus on poor tech stock performance, BTC is lagging behind term premiums. But when attention returns to central bank credibility issues, BTC will resume its hedging function."
Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reiterated Standard Chartered's long-term price forecast for BTC: reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.
He attributed this expected appreciation to macroeconomic pressures, improved structural investment channels through spot ETFs, and an increasingly mature derivatives market.
Kendrick had previously modeled the growth in BTC's allocation in optimized gold-BTC portfolios, believing that as volatility decreases, this will support BTC price increases in the future, especially with continued institutional access expansion under the current U.S. government.
Kendrick stated: "These might be the conditions needed to achieve BTC's next historical high point."
