The global macroeconomic landscape is complex under the dual influence of the Federal Reserve's policies and Trump's tariff measures, with both U.S. stocks and the crypto market under pressure. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated that market expectations of the Fed intervening to calm volatility might be wrong. When asked if the Fed would intervene to address the stock market's sharp decline, Powell said: "My answer is no, but I will explain." Under Powell's hawkish remarks, Trump continues to pressure for rate cuts, and the timing remains uncertain.
Regarding tariffs, Wall Street reported that Trump hinted last week that the tit-for-tat tariff increases between the U.S. and China might be coming to an end. Trump said at the White House: "I don't want tariffs to continue rising because at a certain point, people just won't buy."
However, given the uncertain final outcome, the macro market sentiment has not been significantly restored. Today, spot gold has reached a new historical high of $3,364 per ounce, and the crypto market continues to fluctuate, entering a dull period.
How will the market unfold? Some institutional experts have offered their perspectives.
Placeholder Partner: Bitcoin Will Set a New High This Year
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske tweeted that he predicts the market may experience a few more quarters of growth, after which everyone will become bearish again. He reminds investors to take profits appropriately when market sentiment is high. In a reply to comments, Chris Burniske stated that Bitcoin will set a new high this year.
Matrixport: Bitcoin Needs Multiple Catalysts to Achieve Sustained Growth
Matrixport's recent summary report suggests that to achieve sustained Bitcoin growth, possible catalysts include:
- The Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals or cutting rates;
- Micro-level liquidity growth, such as stablecoin growth and increased futures leverage;
- Macro-level liquidity growth, such as money supply increase or government stimulus measures.
Significant Altcoin growth requires actual application scenario demand or liquidity surge. However, according to tracking indicators, a significant liquidity inflow into the crypto market is unlikely.
Real Vision Founder: Bitcoin Will Follow M2 Growth
The Real Vision founder recently released a diagram showing Bitcoin price correlation with global M2 liquidity, suggesting that Bitcoin will also rise following the M2 trend.
Trader: Focus on $88,000 Level
Trader Saint Pump tweeted that Bitcoin shorts were squeezed during this rally, and the focus is now on the $88,000 level.
10x Research Research Head: Bitcoin May Be Entering a Long-Term Consolidation Period
10x Research research director Markus Thielen believes that Bitcoin may be entering a long-term consolidation period. In a recent market report, Markus warned that despite many analysts predicting a historical high by mid-year, short-term technical signals paint a more cautious picture. Markus pointed out that Bitcoin's random oscillator - a technical indicator measuring momentum - suggests market characteristics are more consistent with a late-cycle top rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
Santiment: Bitcoin Whales Continue to Accumulate
Santiment's data chart shows that wallets holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoins, as key stakeholders, currently hold 67.77% of this market-leading cryptocurrency. During the market volatility in April, these wallets continued to accumulate, buying over 53,600 Bitcoins since March 22.
Coinbase Research Head: Market May Bottom in Mid-Late Q2 2025
Coinbase research head David Duong predicted in a recent monthly report that the market may bottom out in mid-late Q2 2025, creating conditions for a Q3 recovery. Currently, he advises investors to maintain a defensive position on risk assets.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Optimistic About Q2 Market Rebound
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan called Q1 the "worst best quarter in crypto history" and highlighted several factors that could drive a Q2 market rebound: increased global money supply, improved US regulatory environment, and stablecoin asset management reaching a historical high
