Last week (April 15-21), influenced by macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, BTC showed a volatile consolidation trend. As risk-averse sentiment rose and funds flowed out, BTC's price significantly rebounded. On the 21st, BTC price rose in sync with gold prices, briefly breaking through the $88,000 resistance level before retreating. However, with changing market sentiment and recognition of BTC's safe-haven attributes, BTC gradually stabilized on the 22nd, reaching a high of $88,465.99, with the largest weekly fluctuation of 6.44%. Currently, BTC price remains stable around $88,038.
After declining in the previous two weeks, ETH price stabilized this week, currently hovering between $1,500 and $1,600, with the largest weekly fluctuation of 7.8% (data source: Binance Spot, April 22, 14:40).
Market Interpretation
On April 21st, US stocks significantly corrected after the holiday, with the Dow Jones index dropping 971 points, and all three major indices falling over 2%. Large tech stocks generally declined, with Tesla dropping 5.7% and Nvidia falling nearly 5%. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.405%, the US dollar index fell below 99, and funds flowed into gold, with New York gold futures rising 3%, breaking through $3,400 per ounce.
BTC Strongly Decouples from US Stocks, "Digital Gold" Narrative Heats Up, Mainstream Altcoins Rise in Unison
Data shows that over the past 10 days, BTC's correlation with the stock market has significantly decreased. Against the backdrop of continued US stock correction and a weakening dollar, BTC rose against the trend, breaking through $88,500 and creating a new monthly high, demonstrating a notable decoupling from US stocks. In contrast, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq significantly dropped due to trade war concerns, while gold strongly broke through $3,400 per ounce, showing a rise in safe-haven assets.
Simultaneously, mainstream Altcoins such as BNB, SOL, and XRP rose in sync with BTC, continuing the trend of market risk appetite warming up. SOL rose over 5% in a week, BNB broke through $600, and XRP technically broke through its sideways range, all showing strong upward momentum.
Federal Reserve Faces Triple Pressure, Policy Credibility Shaken, Market Risk-Averse Sentiment Rises
On April 16th, the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate reverse repo operation accepted amount dropped to $54.772 billion, a new low since 2021, indicating a rapid decline in market demand for short-term US dollar liquidity and signs of tight funding. The Federal Reserve faces triple pressure from liquidity decline, unclear policy path, and challenged independence, triggering significant market volatility.
The next day, Powell publicly stated that inflation might deviate from the target for the rest of the year and candidly admitted lacking modern experience in policy-making under extreme tariff backgrounds. He added that if US dollar liquidity is short, the Federal Reserve will provide support to global central banks. After the speech, US stocks broadly declined, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6%, Nasdaq falling 2.5%, and the Dow falling over 1%.
On April 21st, US stocks continued to decline, with the Dow dropping 971 points. The US dollar index fell below 99, gold rose 3% breaking $3,400 per ounce, with funds clearly flowing to safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Trump continued to publicly pressure Powell and was reportedly considering his position, triggering deep market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence.
Market Highlights
US Economic Expectations Downgraded, Recession Risk Rises
The latest Reuters survey shows a significant downgrade of US economic growth expectations. 2025 GDP expectations dropped from 2.2% to 1.4%, and 2026 from 2.0% to 1.5%. Simultaneously, the probability of the US falling into economic recession within the next year was raised to 45%, the highest since December 2023.
The survey also showed the largest increase in US 2025 CPI inflation expectations since March 2023, reflecting heightened market concerns about stagflation risks. Slowing growth coupled with rising inflation will make monetary policy space more complex, and the market may further lean towards safe-asset allocation.
SEC to Hold Crypto Custody Roundtable, Compliance Pressure Continues to Rise
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it will hold the third crypto policy roundtable on April 25th, focusing on crypto asset custody issues. The meeting will establish two specialized groups to discuss broker and wallet custody, as well as compliance frameworks for investment advisors and fund-type institutions.
This meeting signals continued regulatory advancement, especially against the backdrop of custody stages critically influencing institutional entry. Analysts suggest that the SEC's focus on custody issues may indicate future more detailed compliance requirements for exchanges and custody service providers, potentially limiting institutional investors' operational space.
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