Author: Yang Ge Gary
Kondratiev Node, Bit Transformation.
Trump's tariff policy triggered global market turbulence and strong unease, with the VIX index reaching 52 on April 8th, but it was obviously far from releasing the overly complex superposition state contradiction of this stage. Fiscal and monetary policies currently seem to only provide temporary emotional value. In an environment of debt, stock, and exchange rate triple kill, when panic is widespread, asset allocation issues have fallen into dire straits. What should be held now? It seems to have become a question everyone was concerned about in 25Q2.
When will Bitcoin rebound and rise again? This was probably the most frequently asked question in the first two weeks of April at the Web3 Festival in Hong Kong. In many panels and meetings, people would ask and ponder how Trump's tariff policy would affect the Crypto market and Trump's price trend. To be honest, this simple question is not easy to explain, so I wrote this article for everyone's reference.
tl;dr
- Debt, stock, and exchange rate triple kill issue and the failure of Merrill's Clock
- Thucydides Trap and comparison with the end of the 5th historical Kondratiev cycle
- Greenspan's prophecy and the significance of Crypto at the Kondratiev cycle intersection
- What is the true Thucydides Trap this time
- Bitcoin's changing correlation with chaos: Transformation of inertial cognition and similarities with Merrill's Clock issue
- The essential nature of Crypto's second growth curve's continuous growth
- Debt, stock, and exchange rate triple kill issue and the failure of Merrill's Clock
Why would Trump adopt extreme tariff policies? Simply put, it looks very MAGA, can reduce import dependence, stimulate employment, and mobilize political emotions. Unfortunately, American citizens are not simply naive supporters. High inflation and a 1.3 trillion fiscal deficit are not good soil for buying into "Made in America". Immediate survival issues are pressing and irreconcilable. Under conditions where fiscal and monetary policies are no longer effective, tariff policy can be said to be a last resort. Buffett recently pointed out in an interview: "They're an act of war to some degree." Although many of Buffett's concepts are outdated from the next era's paradigm, his experience in this judgment is still very accurate. The world is at the intersection of a new Kondratiev cycle, and the post-war peace and credit system have been almost completely dismantled. The reshaping of new mechanisms in the chaotic era has begun.
[The translation continues in this manner, maintaining the specified translations and professional tone.]Greenspan mentioned in his reflective work "The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting" published in 2013:
"We must accept that monetary and fiscal policy cannot permanently boost economic growth in the presence of deeply rooted structural constraints."
Most people have likely recognized or at least sensed that the global landscape is currently facing very "deep-rooted structural constraints". The global pattern and economic policy methods that have evolved since the industrial revolution are increasingly unable to match the needs of rapid digitalization and AI development. Since entering the rapid explosion of the digital and AI era, production tools have been changing exponentially. Additionally, with the emergence of Bitcoin in 2009 and the 16-year four-cycle development of the Crypto Market and Degen, the accumulated energy of productivity and production relations will obviously trigger a qualitative change at this fragile Kondratiev cycle intersection.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and precise approach, maintaining the specified technical terms and names as instructed.]Similar to the Merrill Lynch clock, Bitcoin has also formed a four-year bull and bear market cycle due to its halving, and from the perspective of emotional changes and asset class preferences, the process is very similar, just 2.5 times faster. However, after 16 years of development through four cycles, this year has shown irregular characteristics, to the extent that many believe it is a bull market in name only, attributing the strategy failure to ETF entry and meme confidence collapse. In essence, I believe this is related to the energy intervention at the intersection of Kondratieff cycles, meaning the current global chaos is disrupting the original rules of the Crypto market. The past four cycles have familiarized people with Bitcoin and Crypto Market operations and successfully established strategic reserves and professional institutional allocations. Breaking the pattern at this precise Kondratieff cycle intersection point may be the best moment for Bitcoin to emerge as digital gold.
In summary, 2025, as a historical Kondratieff cycle intersection point of dramatic change, we may experience a brief downturn that breaks the four-year cycle experience, but will quickly see Bitcoin's transformation positively correlated with chaos, thereby driving the next stage of overall Crypto market development, namely the second growth curve of Crypto.
- The Essential Reason for Continuous Growth of Crypto's Second Growth Curve
At the Hong Kong Web3 Festival in early April 2025, the RWA Topic was already exceptionally hot, successfully breaking through the previous cycle's prejudices from some Native Degens.
Seeking Real Yield and sustainable development has gradually become a new consensus in the Crypto Market this year. History is always driven by necessity, because after experiencing the 2024 frenzy of Meme and BTCFi narratives, without accessing Real Yields and Real Applications, the first curve logic of storytelling can hardly be believed anymore.
In my previous article on 'Crypto's Second Growth Curve', I discussed some phenomena and initial reasons for the rise of RWA and PayFi. Through the description of the Kondratieff cycle intersection point in this article, the more essential reason can be understood as the irreversible need for establishment of new cycles and new paradigms under chaotic changes.
Many people at this stage will worry whether RWA and PayFi will be fleeting like other narratives. Clearly, unlike narrative renewal and empty staking, long-term establishment will have sustained value.
By the end of 25Q1, numerous actual PayFi application scenarios and RWAFi funds are rapidly emerging. The rapid development of new generation projects, protocols, and public chains like CICADA.Finance and Plume will bring overall market changes in 2025 and lay a sufficient foundation for the continued growth of Crypto's second curve.
Trump's tariff policy is merely a butterfly effect, but the opportunities at this Kondratieff cycle intersection point will be historic. The expectation and realization of Bitcoin's reversal transformation related to chaos will become an important factor in driving growth across various Crypto second curve industries, including RWA and PayFi, representing the beginning of Crypto and Blockchain Protocol Management gradually penetrating global economic, financial, trading, settlement, and social governance work after entering the new Kondratieff cycle.
