Article source: Between the Lines of Li
At the current market stage, people seem to be focusing only on the macroeconomic situation. Although the supply of stablecoins continues to grow from on-chain data, the market sentiment appears more cautious due to the many existing uncertainties.
I recall in an article from last month (March 26th), we discussed market uncertainties and opportunities from an investment perspective. Now, let's continue this topic from a macro perspective.
[The rest of the translation continues in this manner, maintaining the original structure and fully translating the text while preserving HTML tags]However, we also need to remind you that it is not simply assumed that the market will continue to rise just because the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The relationship between interest rate cuts and market growth is not as straightforward as we might imagine. For example, once the market clearly anticipates interest rate cuts, there is a high probability of a market rally even before the cuts are officially implemented. Additionally, when interest rate cuts officially arrive, although the policy is easing, the market may still experience a new round of decline or a rise followed by a pullback in the early stages of the cut.
In short, interest rate cuts are definitely beneficial to the market, but do not directly equate interest rate cuts with price increases, because the market is always dynamic and volatile.
From a trader's perspective:
Currently, the two most core domino pieces that seem to be able to turn the market around are Trump's policies (mainly focused on the US-China tariff war) and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Once Trump's tariff policy's impact basically ends (a complete reversal currently seems almost impossible, but Trump might adjust and implement relaxation measures for some goods or areas), and the Federal Reserve simultaneously begins to take some positive actions, then theoretically, an improvement in the situation + low US dollar interest rates would encourage more liquidity to return to the market (not just the US stock market, but also the crypto market), and we would likely usher in a new phase of market opportunities.
If we look back at the current or upcoming market from a future results-oriented perspective, we might discover that we are currently facing various relatively cheap assets, and it depends on whether you can continue to pick up treasures.
Of course, "cheap" here is relative, and cheap does not mean low-priced. If you still want to precisely buy at the lowest price, it will depend entirely on your personal judgment, and we cannot provide any advice on this point.
In summary, the current macroeconomic environment looks quite poor, but we seem to have experienced similar scripts before. Although through recent series of articles, everyone can see that we maintain a long-term optimistic attitude, we have also prepared for the potentially worst short-term scenarios.
Market cycles are actually repeated cycles, sometimes bubbles will repeatedly grow and shrink, sometimes bubbles will directly burst and then be blown up again... Although each cycle will have different aspects (such as different time lengths, different policy influences, different narratives), as long as we understand the basic relationship between markets and liquidity, such as understanding the relationship between policies, inflation, and money printing, we can always find some similarities in the market, which is where we can amplify and utilize opportunities.
If you continue to be in the crypto field, then for you, this might be the "worst of times", but also the "best of times". The market has opportunities precisely because of various uncertainties, and only those who can withstand various uncertainties may ultimately win.
At the end of the article, let's leave a question:
Most people are now bearish, but some are optimistic that there will be a bull market opportunity in the second half of the year. Different perspectives are merely different probability issues. So, will we experience a larger economic recession starting this summer? Or will we usher in a new round of staged growth starting this summer? Which view are you more inclined towards? What are the corresponding reasons supporting your view? Have you prepared for both possibilities?
