Chainfeeds Briefing:
Non-USD stablecoins are still in the experimental stage, and the global monetary status of the US dollar remains widely recognized. To maintain industrial capacity and employment, the renminbi will not actively pursue large-scale internationalization, and the replacement of the US dollar will be a very long process.
Source:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6xWT3ytIkg_-zGMsCbjkJQ
Author:
Zuo Ye
Perspective:
Zuo Ye: From a technical perspective, the issuance of the US dollar is a coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, which then uses commercial banks' credit relationships to amplify the monetary multiplier, creating different levels of monetary circulation such as M0/M1/M2/M3... In this issuance model, US Treasury securities (T-Bills, T-Notes, T-Bonds) of varying maturities maintain slow inflation and short-term currency stability, with Treasury bond rates serving as the pricing basis for the entire financial world. The US dollar becomes the world's currency, at the cost of US trade deficits and global dependence on the dollar. The cost is always two-sided; the US's only product is essentially the dollar itself, and countries worldwide must obtain and realize the dollar's purchasing power. The dollar's purchasing power will depreciate long-term, regardless of Trump's will, and countries must obtain dollars to minimize transaction intermediary costs. Bartering is not impossible, but using dollars is more cost-effective. Difficultly obtained dollars must be quickly spent on production or financial arbitrage to maintain purchasing power and export competitiveness. Assuming the following scenario: ・Alice is a textile worker, working hard in a sweatshop, earning 1000 US dollars in cash; ・Bob is a US bond salesman, Alice invests 100/200/200 dollars in short, medium, and long-term US bonds, with 500 dollars remaining for expanded reproduction; ・Bob uses Alice's purchased bonds as collateral, borrows 50000 dollars from bank Cindy with 100x leverage; ・Bob spends 25000 dollars on real estate, 20000 dollars on Mag7 stocks, and 5000 dollars on Alice's bag. In this cycle, Alice's motivation is to obtain dollars through labor and combat inflation through US bond investment and reproduction; Bob's motivation is to absorb dollars and enhance bond value; Cindy's motivation is to collect interest on US bond collateral and earn fees. The dangers are: first, if Alice invests entirely in US bonds, social consumption will collapse; second, if US bonds can no longer be used as risk-free collateral for dollar loans, the entire chain will break, liquidity will plummet, and production will shrink. There's no turning back; after Trump abandons dollar hegemony, the seigniorage charged by the dollar globally will face a Luna-UST-like death spiral, just slower. The fragmentation of the global financial trade system ironically becomes a catalyst for cryptocurrency "globalization". Bitcoin's "Treasury bond-ization" won't harm Bitcoin itself, but cryptocurrency "dollarization" will weaken its decentralized attributes. Meanwhile, stablecoins are replacing volatile coins, becoming the true circulation tool on-chain, supporting the entire cryptocurrency market's liquidity. However, stablecoins are essentially low-multiplier, low-capital efficiency assets. The YBS (yield-bearing stablecoin) model attempts to balance yield and stability but always struggles to surpass USDT's position in trading, transfers, and user mindset. Future competition will focus on use cases and user base, not just short-term protocol yield attraction.
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