The market, project, currency, and other information, views, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Written by 0xWeilan
This week, BTC opened at $78,370.15 and closed at $84,733.07, rising 6.84% for the week with a volatility of 14.89%, and trading volume continued to expand significantly. Since late January, BTC price has effectively broken through the upper limit of the downward channel for the first time, approaching the 200-day moving average.
Trump's "reciprocal tariff war" remained the largest variable in global macro finance this week. Its dramatic performance left the world stunned, with China's countermeasures striking back forcefully.
In this "game of chicken," the first to blink is likely to lose. The global tariff war against the world triggered both explicit and implicit reactions from global forces, including but not limited to political, commercial, and capital levels.
Ultimately, this led to capital fleeing the US market, resulting in a rare "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill in the United States.
Facing a massive financial crisis, the Trump administration chose to compromise, partially suspending or reducing the intensity of reciprocal tariffs, adding exemption lists, and releasing goodwill towards China in public opinion. From this point, the "reciprocal tariff war" gradually entered its second phase, with multiple parties engaging in negotiations and compromise.
The risk equity market, previously impacted by the first phase, now sees a significant rebound. Perhaps the most terrible phase of the "reciprocal tariff war" has passed, but subsequent chaos will continue to dominate various markets. The reciprocal tariff crisis will neither easily pass nor avoid triggering new crises. Key observation points include whether subsequent "reciprocal tariffs" will escalate, whether the Federal Reserve will "timely" cut rates, and whether the US economy will fall into recession.
Policies, Macro Finance, and Economic Data
Because most countries are unable to counter the "reciprocal tariffs", China and the EU's countermeasures have become the main force resisting US hegemony, with China being the backbone.
After several rounds of confrontation, the US has raised tariffs on China to 145%, and China's retaliatory tariffs on the US have reached 125%. This has essentially eliminated the possibility of normal trade, so China subsequently announced it would no longer respond to potential further US tariff increases.
On April 10, the US suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries (excluding China), maintaining a 10% "baseline tariff" and initiating negotiations. US stocks surged as a result, with Nasdaq experiencing its second-largest single-day gain in history.
China's seemingly passive actions actually put enormous pressure on the US. On the 12th, the US exempted some Chinese goods from the 145% "reciprocal tariffs", including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, and display modules.
Pushing the Trump administration into the "second phase" was not solely due to China's countermeasures, but also the strong "opposition" from US political and commercial sectors, as well as stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets.
On Monday, April 7, the three major US stock indices plummeted, reaching adjustment lows or approaching technical bear markets. The next day, the VIX panic index reached 52.33, the third-highest peak since the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
S&P 500 VIX Index
During the same period, short-term Treasury yields fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while long-term Treasury yields rebounded sharply on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
After a massive sell-off in US stocks, US bond funds also joined the selling, and with funds escaping the US for Europe and other regions, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also experienced a significant decline.
US Dollar Index
The "stocks, bonds, and exchange" triple kill forced the Trump administration to release signals of tariff war easing and publish an exemption list. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve also released "dovish" signals. Boston Fed President Collins told the Financial Times in an interview on Friday that the Fed is "absolutely prepared" to use various tools to stabilize financial markets if necessary.
The tariff war's easing and the Fed's verbal market rescue temporarily calmed US financial markets. On Friday, the three major US indices all ended the volatile week with gains.
EMC Labs judges that the US reciprocal tariff war has entered its second phase, with market fear somewhat alleviated and gradually beginning to bottom out. However, based on the Trump administration's "irrationality" and the massive risks of US economic recession and inflation (this week's University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index continued to fall to 50.8), a V-shaped reversal is a low-probability event.
Selling Pressure and Sell-offs
This week, selling pressure on both short and long chains slightly subsided, somewhat stopping the panic selling of the past three weeks. The total on-chain selling volume was 188,816.61 coins, with 178,263.27 from short-term holders and 10,553.34 from long-term holders. On the 7th and 9th, short-term groups experienced significant losses in the global market panic.
Currently, long-term holders continue to play a stabilizing role, increasing holdings by nearly 60,000 coins this week, indicating that market liquidity remains quite scarce. By the weekend, short-term groups were still at a 10% floating loss, indicating the market is still under enormous pressure.
On-chain Market Floating Profit and Loss
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.125, with the market in an upward continuation period.
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. Focusing on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industrial foresight, insight, and data mining as core competencies, committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and crypto assets for human benefit.
For more information, please visit:https://www.emc.fund
