I. Protocol Implementation: The "Seesaw Effect" Under Risk Appetite Shift
On May 12th Beijing time, the tariff truce agreement reached between China and the US in Geneva pressed the "pause button" on trade friction that has lasted for years. The agreement includes suspending 24% of mutually imposed tariffs for 90 days, maintaining a 10% base tax rate, and establishing a third-country consultation mechanism. This progress directly stimulated S&P 500 index futures to jump 3%, with Nasdaq rising 4.35%. However, BTC unexpectedly fell back to a low of $100,700 after touching $105,720, forming a rare "stock-crypto divergence" pattern, with BTC recovering to $102,600 at the time of writing.
· Data Perspective:
· Short-term Capital Diversion: Over the past 30 days, BTC has risen 24% cumulatively, while the S&P 500 rose only 7% in the same period, and gold prices remained flat. As the trade agreement reduces market uncertainty, some funds flow back from crypto assets to traditional stock markets, causing the 30-day correlation between BTC and traditional markets to reach a historical high of 83%.
· Institutional Positions "Double-edged Sword": MicroStrategy and its affiliated institutions recently acquired 13,390 BTC, with total holdings reaching 1.19 million BTC (6% of circulating supply). Although this is seen as a long-term positive, the market is concerned that concentrated holdings might create "price manipulation" risks, especially when the average cost rises above $100,000, potentially increasing short-term selling pressure.
II. Technical Face-off: $106,000 as the "Bullish-Bearish Watershed"
On May 12th, BTC briefly broke through $105,800 before quickly falling back to $101,400, with the 1-hour K-line chart showing a break below the lower boundary of the upward channel.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson points out that there is an "Alpha Price" resistance zone near $106,000, where long-term holders might trigger profit-taking.
· Key Risk Indicators:
· Liquidation Magnetic Effect: CoinGlass data shows that if the price drops to $100,000, approximately $3.4 billion in long-leveraged positions will face forced liquidation risk, creating short-term downward pressure.
· Support Zone Verification: The 4-hour chart shows that $99,700-$100,500 is the recent "Fair Value Gap" (FVG), and if broken, it may further explore the $97,363-$98,680 range, with a pullback of up to 8%.
III. Macro Variables: The "Butterfly Effect" of CPI Data and USD Index
The US April CPI data to be released on May 13th is the market focus. Previously, March CPI was 2.4% (lower than the expected 2.5%). If April data continues the downward trend, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets; conversely, if inflation rebounds, the USD index (DXY) might break through the 30-day high, suppressing BTC.
Correlation Logic:
· Gold and BTC "Safe Haven Alternatives": On May 12th, gold fell 3.4%, and DXY rose to a 30-day high, reflecting investors' shift from scarce assets to USD and stock markets. This round validates the short-term positive correlation between BTC and gold.
· Long-term Narrative of USD Hegemony Loosening: Despite short-term setbacks, the "local currency settlement pilot" clause in the agreement may weaken the USD's trade settlement status. Historical data shows that during the 2018-2020 trade war, BTC ultimately broke through $20,000 after an initial pullback, and its "decentralized settlement tool" attribute may regain attention in the medium to long term.
IV. Market Sentiment Divergence: Whale Retreat and ETF Capital Inflow "Divergence Signal"
On-chain data shows a decrease of 12 addresses holding over 10,000 BTC, with exchange reserve volumes dropping 1.8%, suggesting some large holders are taking profits.
However, US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $2 billion from May 1-9, with institutional funds still showing a "buy more as it rises" attitude.
Structural Contradiction Analysis:
· Retail Leverage Risk: Currently, Altcoin trading volume has surged 280%, but HTX Research indicates its leverage rate is still in the safe zone. In comparison, BTC futures positions are concentrated at $98,000-$100,000, easily triggering "both long and short kills".
· Institutional "Bottom-line" Logic: Wall Street giants like BlackRock are forming a liquidity monopoly through ETFs, compressing BTC's daily volatility from 18% to 9%, gradually tilting pricing rights towards traditional capital.
V. Future Projection: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Paradigm Shift
· Scenario One (Optimistic): If CPI data is below expectations, coupled with increased Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, BTC may quickly recover above $105,000 and challenge the $120,000 mark. Institutional acquisitions and ETF inflows will build a "moat", making the probability of breaking below $100,000 less than 20%.
· Scenario Two (Cautious): If CPI rebounds causing USD strength, BTC might explore support levels at $97,000-$99,000. However, MicroStrategy's $21 billion additional investment provides "ammunition", with limited selling pressure from long-term holders, potentially entering a $90,000-$110,000 range after pullback.
Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
BTC's short-term volatility is essentially a tug-of-war for pricing rights between traditional finance and crypto ecology. Investors should be wary of leverage risks and policy variables, but more importantly, focus on the evolution of its underlying logic: as tariff barriers collide with blockchain technology, BTC is evolving from "digital gold" to a "transnational value transfer protocol".
BTC's true victory is not about defeating fiat currency, but proving that humans need diverse value anchors.
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