Reviewing the Fed’s 10-year interest rate cycle: Where will Bitcoin go under the best, medium and worst paths?

Over the past decade, the bull peaks and bear bottoms of Bitcoin have been a reflection of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

• Tops often occur when rate hike expectations are strongest
• Bottoms are associated with expectations of a shift towards rate cuts

Now, the market stands at a three-path crossroads:

• Rate hike restart → Second bottom?
• Rate cuts in the second half → Oscillation after peak?
• Mid-year rate cuts → Bull market acceleration?

These paths will determine Bitcoin's next move.

This article will break down the BTC trend under three scenarios, understanding the macro and price game logic in one go.

I. Federal Reserve's 10-Year Interest Rate Policy Review: How Did Bitcoin's "Tops" and "Bottoms" Respond?

Over the past decade (around 2015-2025), the Federal Reserve went through a complete cycle of rate hikes, cuts, re-hikes, and pauses. Reviewing this history, we found an intriguing correlation between Bitcoin price turning points and the Fed's policy nodes, especially the "advance reaction" of market expectations.

Conclusion first:

1. Bitcoin's bull tops often lead the start or acceleration of rate hikes, with markets trading tightening expectations in advance.

2. Bitcoin's bear bottoms typically appear in the later stages of rate hikes, during rate hike pauses, or before the start of a rate cut cycle. Markets seek bottoms when sentiment is most pessimistic or expectations of easing emerge.

3. Quantitative easing (QE) or rapid rate cuts are crucial catalysts for bull markets.

The following is a comparison table of the Fed's major rate policies and Bitcoin's key trends over the past decade:

This table clearly shows the "time difference" between Bitcoin's key turning points and the Fed's policy cycle. Whether the 2017 or 2021 bull market peaks, they occurred before the rate hike "hammer" truly fell or at the peak of rate hike expectations. The bear market bottoms, meanwhile, were often accompanied by expectations of a shift towards rate cuts.

Currently, we are in a "rate hike pause" + "brief rate cut" platform period, with the market waiting for the next clear directional signal - whether it can cut rates again and enter a quantitative easing "flood" phase.