After yesterday's sharp decline, the crypto market has initiated a rebound. On April 8, 2025, Bitcoin briefly broke through $80,500 in the morning and is currently hovering near the $80,000 mark. Although Ethereum has also experienced a rebound, its trend is noticeably weaker, with market concerns about its long-term competitiveness intensifying.
According to BTCC market data, BTC dropped to a low of $74,500 yesterday, with the overall market experiencing a significant downturn. However, a rumor about "U.S. tariffs being delayed by 90 days" quickly spread through the market in the evening, triggering a comprehensive rebound in crypto assets. Bitcoin briefly surged past $81,000 before retreating, and is currently oscillating around $80,000, with a 24-hour increase of 0.7%.
Caution Advised for "Buying the Dip"
Last night's market volatility was primarily caused by a simple rumor - "tariff increase to be delayed by 90 days" - which instantly triggered market anxiety about "missing the bottom".
According to The Kobeissi Letter's analysis, this behavior is a continuation of the "buying the dip" pattern from years ago. Investors are still betting on a rebound driven by the Federal Reserve's intervention, policy relaxation, or unexpected positive news. However, in the current high-inflation, high-interest-rate, and highly uncertain market environment, the applicability of this strategy is worth reconsidering.
If no U.S.-China trade agreement is reached on April 9, market panic may resurface, and the rebound could be short-lived.
Bitcoin currently faces two major pressure points: first, the $81,211 level, which was previously an important support but now serves as strong resistance; second, the 0.618 retracement level of the hourly decline at $80,261, which was touched in the morning but has not shown a significant pullback.
Ethereum performed particularly weak in yesterday's market, dropping to $1,411 at one point, ranking among the top losers among major cryptocurrencies. Although it has slightly rebounded today, its gains significantly lag behind Bitcoin, and the $1,600 resistance remains difficult to break. Data shows that ETH's market cap proportion has fallen to its lowest level in a year, raising doubts about Ethereum's core position in Web3, L2, and smart contract competition.
Dual Concerns of Macro Risks and Satoshi Nakamoto's "Black Swan"
The Trump administration's new tariff policy has triggered retaliatory measures from multiple economic entities, putting global risk assets under pressure. The current financial market is experiencing severe shocks, with U.S. stock volatility and high bond yields, and the crypto market is in the extended zone of this storm.
Despite market expectations of Federal Reserve intervention, inflation pressure remains high. Without a serious systemic crisis, the Fed is unlikely to intervene significantly in the short term. Therefore, the market may continue to seek direction amid high volatility.
Investors should focus on key data and events this week, including Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes, Thursday's CPI data, and Friday's PPI data, which could serve as "indicators" for judging the market's next phase.
Additionally, it's worth noting that the market is once again speculating about Satoshi Nakamoto's coin holdings risk. According to foreign media, crypto lawyer James Murphy filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on April 7 under the Freedom of Information Act, claiming the agency possesses information about Satoshi Nakamoto's true identity. This revelation quickly sparked market speculation.
It is estimated that Satoshi Nakamoto holds approximately 1 million BTC, representing 5% of the total Bitcoin supply. These coins have remained untouched since their creation and are considered to be in a "dormant state". However, if Satoshi Nakamoto's identity is exposed or wallet addresses show any activity, it could trigger market fears of massive sell-offs, potentially causing extreme volatility or even systemic risks. Although the probability of this event is extremely low, it cannot be ignored as a potential black swan factor.
Behind the Rebound: Investor Sentiment Driving the Market
This round of rebound is not only due to the "buying the dip" mentality of a bull market but also reflects the crypto market's high dependence on news. An unverified rumor about "tariff delay" instantly drove Bitcoin's price up by thousands of dollars. This reaction is not based on fundamentals or macro support but is a typical "sentiment-driven market".
For retail investors, "buying the dip" remains the mainstream mindset, but this strategy should be more rational and cautious. In an environment of extreme uncertainty, controlling position size, setting stop-losses, and avoiding high leverage are key to protecting capital and seeking stable gains. In short, not all rebounds are worth chasing, especially on the eve of a storm.
