Affected by U.S. reciprocal tariffs, global assets have entered a panic-selling phase. BTC has remained relatively resilient over the past week but is still influenced by macroeconomic factors, making it difficult to develop an independent trend. As multiple countries and regions announce counter-sanctions against U.S. reciprocal tariffs, market volatility has intensified.
Especially after China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imported goods starting April 10, the international giants' game has exacerbated the market sell-off, pushing the market into a "Black Monday". Not only have macro assets plummeted across the board, but the Nasdaq index has fallen nearly 25% from its peak, U.S. stocks dropped 4%, and BTC touched a low of $74,508, with a 24-hour maximum amplitude exceeding 10%.
The market has been overly focused on "reciprocal tariffs", deepening the impact of news. From rumors of a "90-day postponement" to "debunking fake news", BTC rapidly surged to $81,200 on the 7th. As of the writing of this article, BTC price is temporarily holding at the $79,000 support level (above data from Binance spot, real-time data as of April 8, 14:30).
Market Interpretation
Event-driven factors dominate recent market, focusing on short-term market sentiment volatility risks
Market sell-off sentiment has led to a significant decline in U.S. stocks, with market value evaporating over $5 trillion in the past few days, and losses exceeding $10 trillion since Trump's inauguration.
The market's connection with macro variables has deepened. Although the callback triggered by tariffs is a specific event-driven decline, due to the current uncontrollable human variables, economic or political consultations regarding tariffs cannot be ruled out in the next 6 months. Market sentiment will fluctuate with changes in trade policies, and investors are advised to pay attention to short-term market volatility risks.
Multiple countries issue counter-sanction measures, economic game opens
According to Jin Shi, the European Commission proposed imposing a 25% counter-tariff on a series of U.S. imported goods, effective from May 16. The European Commission removed U.S. Bourbon whiskey from its proposed list of counter-tariff goods. The document also shows that the European Commission proposed counter-tariffs on some U.S. imported goods, planned to take effect on December 1.
Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu stated that all possible measures will be taken to address the impact of U.S. tariffs. A working group has been established at the Ministry of Finance and Financial Services to handle U.S. tariff issues. Japan and the U.S. have decided to communicate at the departmental level on foreign exchange issues. Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok stated that Korea will continue to closely monitor financial markets. Financial market volatility may persist, and market stabilization measures will be quickly taken if necessary. Japanese and Korean stock markets rose significantly on the 8th, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 6% at one point, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index expanding to 6%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Bank index surging 10%. The Korean KOSPI index rose over 2% to 2,381.31 points.
A-share market protection measures launched, A-shares significantly recover
Before the market opened on the 8th, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued A-share market protection measures, supporting state-owned enterprises' buybacks to protect shareholders' interests. Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin announced increase plans and collectively increased stock asset holdings to maintain market stability. The total share of stock ETF market increased by 4.2764 billion shares, with net inflows estimated at about 74.003 billion yuan based on the average trading price.
After A-shares opened, the market showed significant uplift, with large consumer and retail sectors leading gains, state-owned enterprise stocks collectively stretching, and Hong Kong stocks also showing clear gains.
Recent Focus Points
Reciprocal tariffs intensify market volatility risks, key data worth attention
After the tariff suspension rumor, President Trump stated he will not suspend the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" policy. After meeting with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, Trump told media that he currently has no plans to suspend the tariff policy, and leaders of many economies are seeking to negotiate with him.
The March CPI data is about to be released, and although the data has not been published, market expectations for an emergency Fed rate cut are rising. Swap trading shows about a 40% possibility of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points next week, well before the Fed's rate resolution on May 7. Meanwhile, investors are selling risks and buying bonds, causing yields to plummet. On Monday, the yield of the most monetary policy-sensitive U.S. two-year Treasury bond fell 22 basis points to 3.43%, with a total decline of about 50 basis points since Trump announced the tariffs.
SEC publishes April 11 crypto trading roundtable agenda, may promote crypto regulation process
The SEC website shows that the SEC Crypto Special Working Group will hold a public roundtable titled "Between Blocks and Challenges: Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading" from 1:00 PM to 5:00 PM Eastern Time on April 11 at its Washington headquarters, with online live streaming. The meeting will be hosted by Goodwin Procter partner Nicholas Losurdo, with participants including executives and experts from Uniswap Labs, Coinbase, NYSE, and other institutions. With recent crypto regulatory policies being relaxed, the market anticipates this roundtable may promote the crypto regulation process.
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