Trading time: Global stock markets are in turmoil, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a new low since February 2020

1. Market Observation

Keywords: Tariffs, ETH, BTC

After the Qingming Festival, the global financial market experienced a "Black Monday," with Trump administration's tariff policies triggering market turmoil. A recent Forbes survey shows that 72% of Wall Street heavyweights are disappointed with the Trump team's economic strategy, with tariff policies scoring only 1.86 points and crypto-related policies scoring 2.00 points. The business community reacted strongly, with 44% of corporate executives at the Yale CEO Summit saying they would collectively speak out against Trump's tariff policies if the stock market drops 20%. Musk, who has traditionally supported Trump, also supported establishing a "zero-tariff" system between the US and Europe on social media over the weekend, seemingly distancing himself from the White House's trade war stance.

Market panic spread, with several Asian markets triggering circuit breakers. The Nikkei 225 index fell over 8%, the Korean KOSPI index dropped over 5%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index plummeted over 9%, triggering a circuit breaker. In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,100 points, with over 1,000 stocks hitting the lower limit. As risk aversion sentiment heated up, gold initially fell below $3,000 before rebounding to above $3,050, ultimately forming a synchronized rise of gold, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds. Notably, the People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold holdings for the fifth consecutive month and stated that monetary policy tools such as RRR and interest rate cuts have sufficient room for adjustment.

The cryptocurrency market was not spared, with Bitcoin falling 7.2% intraday, breaking below $78,000, and Ethereum falling even more at 15%, dropping below $1,550. Moreover, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell below 0.02, hitting a new low since February 2020. However, analysts have different views on the future development of mainstream cryptocurrencies. Real Vision's chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts predicts that BTC may challenge $132,000 this year based on the M2 money supply growth model. Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher believes the final rebound will be more robust, expecting Bitcoin to reach a new high between the third quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2026. In contrast, Mechanism Capital partner Andrew Kang is pessimistic about Ethereum, predicting ETH might return to the $1,000-1,500 range.

In terms of regulation, the SEC issued an important statement on stablecoins, clearly stating that certain types of crypto assets (i.e., "Covered Stablecoins") do not fall under securities categories. These stablecoins must maintain a 1:1 exchange ratio with the US dollar and be backed by low-risk, highly liquid assets. Simultaneously, the White House has requested that all federal agencies report their cryptocurrency holdings to the Treasury Secretary but has not mandated public audit results.

At the macroeconomic level, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned that tariff policies would drive up inflation and suppress economic growth. Goldman Sachs lowered its US Q4 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised the 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%. They expect the Fed to start a series of rate cuts in June, potentially cutting rates three times by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% if the US avoids a recession. However, if the economy falls into recession, the Fed might cut rates by about 200 basis points next year. Facing economic downward pressure, "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki advises investors to turn to hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin to cope with a potential economic crisis.

2. Key Data (as of April 7, 13:30 HKT)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)

• Bitcoin: $77,267.21 (YTD -17.53%), Daily spot trading volume $45.352 billion

• Ethereum: $1,537.97 (YTD -53.78%), Daily spot trading volume $28.761 billion

• Fear and Greed Index: 25 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC 1 sat/vB, ETH 1.7 Gwei

• Market Dominance: BTC 62.7%, ETH 7.6%

• Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, AERGO, SOL

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9794

• Sector Performance: Crypto market generally declined, with Meme sector down 14.23% and AI sector down 13.52%

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: Globally 320,432 people liquidated, total liquidation amount $986 million, with BTC liquidation at $328 million and ETH liquidation at $293 million

• BTC Medium and Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line (84,111.92), Lower line (82,446.34)

• ETH Medium and Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line ($1,822.26), Lower line ($1,786.17)

*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium and long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is in a bottom or top-building state.