Odaily星球日报讯 由于没有迹象表明特朗普会在关税问题上让步，人们对美联储紧急降息的预期正在上升。掉期交易显示，美联储下周降息 25 个基点的可能性约为 40%，远早于美联储定于 5 月 7 日的利率决议。与此同时，投资者纷纷抛售风险，抢购债券，导致收益率暴跌。周一，对货币政策最敏感的美国两年期国债收益率下跌了 22 个基点，至 3.43%，自特朗普宣布征税以来，美国两年期国债收益率总计下跌了约 50 个基点。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 由于没有迹象表明特朗普会在关税问题上让步，人们对美联储紧急降息的预期正在上升。掉期交易显示，美联储下周降息 25 个基点的可能性约为 40%，远早于美联储定于 5 月 7 日的利率决议。与此同时，投资者纷纷抛售风险，抢购债券，导致收益率暴跌。周一，对货币政策最敏感的美国两年期国债收益率下跌了 22 个基点，至 3.43%，自特朗普宣布征税以来，美国两年期国债收益率总计下跌了约 50 个基点。（金十）

美联储“紧急降息”预期攀升

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: As there are no signs that Trump will compromise on tariffs, expectations for an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising. Swap trading shows that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points next week is around 40%, well ahead of the Fed's rate decision on May 7th. Meanwhile, investors are selling off risks and rushing to buy bonds, causing yields to plummet. On Monday, the yield of the most monetary policy-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury note fell by 22 basis points to 3.43%, and since Trump announced the tariffs, the two-year U.S. Treasury note yield has dropped by approximately 50 basis points in total. (Jin Shi)

Expectations of an emergency rate cut by the Federal Reserve rise

Odaily Planet News: According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 33.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 66.7%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 33.3%.

Odaily Planet Daily News: Traders have now fully priced in five rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. (Jinshi)

Traders now fully price in five Fed rate cuts by 2025

<PANews> News on April 6th, after Trump announced the tariff proposal, market sentiment dramatically deteriorated. The proposal intensified global growth expectation concerns and led to a sharp decline in the US stock market. On Friday, the S&P 500 index market value evaporated another $1.5 trillion, with cumulative losses reaching $3.5 trillion over two trading days. Large technology stocks declined, with the Nasdaq index closing more than 20% below its record high from December, entering a technical bear market. Looking ahead to next week, the tariff prospects remain far from clear. Investors still need to focus on potential agreements between the United States and other countries, which could help improve market sentiment. If no agreements are reached and trigger tariff responses from more countries, the market may face another painful week. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Wednesday 02:00, San Francisco Fed President Daley participates in a dialogue titled "Federal Reserve Economic Outlook and Work"
Wednesday 23:00, Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech
Wednesday 21:30, Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a welcome address at an event
Thursday 02:00, Federal Reserve publishes March monetary policy meeting minutes
Thursday 20:30, US March CPI data, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5
Friday 00:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at the New York Economic Club
Friday 00:30, Philadelphia Fed President Hark speaks on financial technology
Friday 20:30, US March PPI data
Friday 22:00, St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on US economy and monetary policy
Friday 22:00, US April one-year inflation rate expectation initial value, US April University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value
Friday 23:00, New York Fed President Williams speaks on economic prospects and monetary policy

Considering all current uncertainties, US dollar traders will focus on the US March CPI data to be released next Thursday. Tariffs not only threaten economic activity but also pose upward risks to inflation. If CPI data further accelerates, this might prompt traders to reduce some rate cut expectations. Besides CPI data, PPI data and inflation expectations could also become key market driving factors.