交易员现完全定价美联储2025年将进行五次降息

Odaily Planet Daily News: Traders have now fully priced in five rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. (Jinshi)

Traders now fully price in five Fed rate cuts by 2025

Odaily Planet News: According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 33.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 66.7%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in May is 33.3%.

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: UBS report points out that in terms of inflation, it is expected that by the end of this year, the tariffs announced by the new government so far may cause U.S. consumer prices to rise by about 2 percentage points, on the premise that only part of the cost is passed on to end consumers. "Although higher inflation will pose a challenge to the Federal Reserve, we believe that significant economic slowdown and potential weakness in the labor market will mean that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75-100 basis points for the remainder of 2025." (Jin Shi)

UBS predicts the Fed will cut interest rates by 75-100 basis points through the rest of 2025

<Odaily> Planet Daily News: Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, believing that the risk of further policy easing is higher if an economic recession occurs. Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin a series of rate cuts in June—earlier than its previous prediction of July—as part of a preemptive easing cycle. Under the base case assumption that the United States avoids a recession, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points three times consecutively, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. However, Goldman Sachs anticipates that if the economy truly falls into a recession, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more aggressive policy response, cutting rates by approximately 200 basis points next year. Considering the increased possibility of an economic recession, the institution's current weighted forecast shows a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, higher than the previous 105 basis points. As of the close of trading last Friday, this outlook is largely consistent with current market expectations. (Jintian)