I. Macroeconomic Impact: Double Squeeze of Tariffs and Inflation
Trump's New Tariff Policy Triggers Market Panic
The United States plans to announce a "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, expected to impose an average 15% tariff on all trading partners, which is 5 percentage points higher than previously anticipated. Goldman Sachs warns that this move could drive up import costs and trigger global retaliatory actions, exacerbating supply chain inflation pressures;
On the "Black Friday" of the US stock market on March 28, the S&P 500 index plummeted by 1.97%, with tech stocks leading the decline, causing a market value evaporation of $50.5 billion. The crypto market was simultaneously under pressure, with Bitcoin falling from $84,000 to $81,565, and its total market value shrinking by 25% to $2.9 trillion;
Inflation Data Exceeds Expectations, Rate Cut Prospects Dim
The US February core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.6%, while the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 57 (the lowest since 2022). Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.0%, with the probability of economic recession rising to 35%;
Federal Reserve officials have taken a hawkish stance, with Boston Fed President Collins stating that "maintaining higher rates for longer is appropriate". Market expectations for rate cuts this year have been reduced from 4 to 1-2 times, leading to a sell-off in risk assets;
II. Institutional Fund Trends: ETF Divergence and RWA Explosion
Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows Diverge
US Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative outflow of $1.54 billion in March, including GBTC's single-day sale of 641 BTC (worth $56.45 million). However, BlackRock's IBIT continues to see net inflows, with cumulative AUM exceeding $40 billion, indicating long-term institutional confidence;
El Salvador continues to accumulate BTC, purchasing 53 coins in the past 30 days, with a medium-term goal of adding 20,000, reinforcing its "Bitcoin strategic reserve" positioning;
RWA Track Rises Against the Trend
The tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025. Ondo Finance (ONDO) token price broke through $2.1, creating a new historical high, with a total market value of $2.8 billion. It has partnered with BlackRock's BUIDL fund, offering a 4.44% annual yield on US Treasury bonds, attracting institutional holdings from Grayscale, Pantera Capital, and others;
Maple Finance has transformed into RWA collateralized lending, with cumulative loans of $2.46 billion and an annual yield of 9.69%. After converting token MPL to SYRUP, its circulating market value exceeded $100 million, becoming a leader in private credit;
III. Technical Innovation and Market Divergence: Layer2 vs. Meme
Layer2 Technology Upgrade and Institutional Layout
Ethereum's Pectra upgrade will launch in April, integrating execution and consensus layers, enhancing staking flexibility, and paving the way for a staked ETH spot ETF. Fidelity and Grayscale have submitted applications, and if approved, it could attract billions of dollars;
Traditional giants like Sony and Deutsche Bank are building Layer2 on Ethereum. While not igniting the C-end market, it highlights technical recognition. Base chain (under Coinbase) has exceeded 1 million daily active users and surpassed Solana in transaction volume;
Meme Coin Frenzy and Risk Warnings
The BSC chain's "Meme season" continues, with CaptainBNB rising 13,000% within 6 hours of launch, but most projects lack value support. The Trump family-issued TRUMP coin's market value once exceeded $12 billion but was later suspected of being a "covert corruption tool" and saw its price halved;
Analysts warn that Meme coin trading volume on chains like Solana and Base exceeds 11%, but high leverage combined with regulatory uncertainty (such as potential US congressional legislation restricting politicians from issuing coins) may trigger a sector-wide collapse;
IV. Future Outlook: Key Events and Strategic Recommendations
Concentrated Risk Events in April
April 2 Tariff Announcement: If the policy is severe, Bitcoin may fall below $80,000; if some industries are exempted, it may rebound to $85,000;
April 5 Non-Farm Data: If new employment is below 150,000, it may strengthen rate cut expectations and drive a crypto market rebound;
Long-Term Trends and Investment Logic
Bitcoin Strategic Allocation: Galaxy Research predicts BTC's 2025 target at $185,000, recommending dollar-cost averaging in the $78,000-$82,000 range, with a stop-loss at $77,500;
RWA and Compliance Opportunities: Prioritize leading projects like Ondo (ONDO) and Maple (SYRUP), while being cautious of token unlock selling pressure (e.g., ONDO will unlock 1.94 billion tokens annually over the next four years);
Hedging Strategy: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000), allocate 20%-30% stablecoins (USDC, DAI) to address extreme volatility;
Conclusion: Finding Structural Opportunities Amidst Uncertainty
The crypto market in 2025 is undergoing multiple tests of macroeconomic policies, technological innovation, and capital competition. Although short-term volatility is intense, RWA compliance, Layer2 upgrades, and institutional ETF inflows remain the long-term main themes. Investors need to abandon FOMO emotions and find value anchors in the midst of tariff storms and inflation fog.
—— This article does not contain any investment advice, and investment requires caution
