Over the past week, BTC price showed an oscillating trend, reaching a high of $88,765 and a low of $81,278, with a maximum fluctuation of 8% during the week (data from Binance spot market, real-time data as of 15:00 on April 1st). Influenced by macroeconomic policies, BTC experienced significant price volatility last week. The upcoming "reciprocal" tariff strategy will further impact cryptocurrency and global stock index trends, while the non-farm payroll report and CPI data to be released soon may further influence market sentiment and attitudes towards risk assets.
Market Overview
Global Stock Markets Decline Significantly Amid Trump's New Tariff Policy
The Trump team will introduce new "reciprocal" tariff measures on April 2nd (Eastern Time), with markets widely concerned that these tariffs may escalate trade friction, inflation risks, and drag down economic growth, creating negative pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies.
As the last trading day of Q1, on the evening of March 31st, global stock markets showed significant reactions. The three major US stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 2% at one point, ultimately closing with the Dow Jones turning positive, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices narrowed their declines. Tech stocks generally plummeted, with Tesla and NVIDIA falling around 4%. European stock markets mostly dropped over 1%.
The market trend on the 31st also marked a sharp reversal of the brief optimistic sentiment from mid-March. The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index once rose to 24, exceeding the 20 level that typically triggers market alerts. Simultaneously, investors rushed into safe-haven assets, with US Treasury bonds and gold being sought after, with gold prices reaching a historical high of over $3,100 per ounce.
BTC Spot ETF Experiences Net Outflows for Two Consecutive Months, Retail Interest Wanes
BTC ETF has seen market net outflows for two consecutive months. Although the year-to-date capital inflow remains positive ($1.05 billion), the ETF performance has notably weakened recently, especially compared to safe-haven assets like gold.
The capital flow indicates that the BTC ETF currently heavily relies on favorable financing rates and arbitrage opportunities, rather than broad investor interest. Given the continued low speculative sentiment in the crypto market, substantial capital inflow into BTC ETF is unlikely without a strong catalyst.
Nasdaq 100 Index Records Worst Quarterly Performance in Nearly Three Years
According to Jin10, concerns about the AI bubble have impacted the Nasdaq 100 index, which dropped 8.3% in the first quarter, its worst performance in nearly three years. NVIDIA, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Amazon have all fallen at least 20% from their historical highs. Similarly, the S&P 500 index is heading towards its worst performance relative to global markets since the 1980s.
Data shows the Nasdaq 100 index peaked in February, rising more than double from its December 2022 low. While the average valuation has dropped from 27x to 24x, it remains high compared to the 20-year average of about 20x.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Trump's Remarks Intensify Market Concerns, Safe-Haven Sentiment Rises
The S&P 500 index has fallen over 5% this year. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, this is the largest quarterly performance gap since 1988. Notably, amid the stock market decline, energy, healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples companies have performed well. These enterprises typically distribute high dividends and are favored by income investors when bond yields fall, becoming the strongest sectors in the S&P 500 this quarter.
Before the tariff policy is officially implemented, Wall Street analysts have been warning about US stocks. Goldman Sachs' chief US stock strategist David Kostin has lowered his year-end target for the S&P 500 index for the second time this month, now expecting it to close at 5,700 points, lower than the previous estimate of 6,200 points. The CEO of Advisors Asset Management stated: "Trader sentiment is tense, with fears of economic slowdown exceeding expectations, causing them to seek safe assets."
"Reciprocal" Tariff Policy May Dominate Global Economic Sentiment
Trump plans to announce new "reciprocal" tariff measures on April 2nd. Based on previous statements, these reciprocal tariffs will target "all countries," not just the 10 to 15 countries with significant trade deficits with the US.
Due to the potential large scale of these tariffs, the market has experienced a "panic" sell-off. If the tariff policy turns out to be relatively mild, a potential sharp rebound cannot be ruled out.
Non-Farm Report and CPI Data to be Released Soon, Closely Linked to Rate Cut Extent
The US non-farm employment report will be published on April 4th, and the March CPI data will be released on April 10th. These two data points strongly influence market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Although February inflation data was moderate, a potential rise in March inflation could weaken market expectations of near-term rate cuts. Tightening market liquidity will increase price volatility for crypto assets.
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