TL;DR

• From a macro perspective, the U.S. in March 2025 shows characteristics of marginal inflation decline, employment resilience, and intensified policy divergence. Core inflation pressure is partially alleviated, the labor market is moderately cooling down, and the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance. Coupled with ongoing tariff disruptions, market uncertainty continues to rise. In terms of policy and market negotiations, the Fed emphasizes a "data-driven" path to balance inflation stickiness and rate cut expectations, leading to increased capital market volatility and U.S. stock market pressure, with subsequent trends highly dependent on the implementation of tariff policies and verification of inflation decline sustainability.

• The overall crypto market trading volume continues to decline, with a 12% drop in daily average trading volume, weakening market activity, and no clear breakthrough in market capitalization. Popular tokens launched in March were mainly focused on ecosystem projects and BSC meme tokens, with Mubarak experiencing a surge due to CZ's Twitter mentions, driving continued BSC meme enthusiasm.

• In March, BTC and ETH ETFs experienced outflows, with BTC ETF outflows of $692 million and ETH ETF outflows of $410 million. Simultaneously, the stablecoin market continued to grow, with total stablecoin inflows of approximately $2.67 billion in March, primarily driven by USDC's strong growth.

• BTC rose 4.25% last week and saw a net inflow of $744.4 million in the U.S. spot BTC ETF, indicating a recovery in bullish sentiment, but facing strong resistance at the 50-day moving average. Cryptocurrencies like ETH and Solana also showed signs of rebound. If they break through key resistance levels, they may continue to rise; otherwise, bears might regain market dominance.

• The Trump administration's announcement to include Bitcoin in U.S. strategic reserves marks a historic turning point in crypto regulation and may trigger global crypto policy adjustments. Meanwhile, Binance continues to drive BNB ecosystem and MEME project growth through powerful market marketing and innovative features, attracting significant user and investor attention. Additionally, Trump-related tokens like SOL, XRP, and ADA may become future speculation focuses, potentially causing market volatility, especially around key ETF approval nodes.

In March, BTC's price saw a slight rebound. As of March 26, BTC price increased from $84,373 at the beginning of the month to $87,460, a growth of approximately 3.6%. BTC ETF funds experienced an outflow of around -$692 million in March.

ETH ETF outflowed -$410 million in March

In March, Ethereum's price continued its downward trend. As of March 26, ETH price dropped from $2,237 at the beginning of the month to $2,067, a decline of up to -7.5%. ETH ETF funds experienced an outflow of approximately -$410 million in March.

3.2 Stablecoin Inflow and Outflow Analysis

Stablecoin inflow of approximately $2.67 billion in March - mainly from USDC

In March, despite the continued sluggish macro and cryptocurrency markets, the stablecoin market maintained strong growth momentum. USDC became the primary driver of growth this month, with its circulation increasing by approximately $3.41 billion, occupying a significant portion of the stablecoin market expansion. In contrast, USDT's circulation decreased by $597 million.

4. Price Analysis of Mainstream Currencies

4.1 BTC Price Change Analysis

Bitcoin rose 4.25% last week, closing above $86,000, with bulls extending the rebound momentum to above $88,700 on March 24. Buyers seem to be returning to the market. According to SoSoValue data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF achieved a net inflow of $744.4 million last week after five consecutive weeks of outflows.

The 20-day moving average is flattening, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to the positive zone, indicating that bulls temporarily have the upper hand. This round of rebound is expected to encounter strong resistance at the 50-day moving average ($90,290). If the price pulls back from the 50-day moving average but finds support at the 20-day moving average, it will release a positive signal, potentially challenging $95,000 and further exploring $100,000. Conversely, if the price falls from the 50-day moving average and breaks below the 20-day moving average, it means bears are still active at high levels. Once it breaks below $83,000, the BTC/USDT trading pair may drop to $80,000.

4.2 ETH Price Change Analysis

Ethereum bulls are again attempting to push the price above the 20-day moving average ($2,057) and the key breakout point of $2,111. If successful, it would indicate that the market has negated the breakdown below $2,111, and the ETH/USDT trading pair may attack the 50-day moving average ($2,356) and further challenge $2,550.

Bears are running out of time. To maintain their advantage, they must hold the $2,111 defense line and quickly suppress the price below $1,750 to restart the downtrend and explore the $1,550 support level.

4.3 SOL Price Change Analysis

Solana broke through the 20-day moving average ($135) on March 24, showing that bulls are attempting a counterattack. If the price maintains above the 20-day moving average, the SOL/USDT trading pair may climb to the 50-day moving average ($158). Bears will try to obstruct the rebound at the 50-day moving average, but if bulls break through this resistance, they may further surge to $180, reactivating the large fluctuation range of 110-260 dollars.

Conversely, if the price pulls back from the current level or the 50-day moving average, it indicates that bears are still selling at high levels. Only by pressing the price below the 110-120 dollar support zone can bears initiate a new downtrend.

5. Hot Events of the Month

5.1 US to Include Bitcoin in National Strategic Reserves

In March 2025, the Trump administration pushed a major transformation in the cryptocurrency field, announcing the inclusion of Bitcoin (BTC) in the US national strategic reserves and signing the "Digital Assets Executive Order". They established a digital assets working group to respond to the Biden administration's strict regulatory policies, aiming to make the US the "global cryptocurrency capital". The plan sparked market excitement, with Bitcoin breaking through $95,000. Subsequently, Trump announced that 200,000 Bitcoin seized by the federal government would be held as strategic reserves, managed by the Treasury Department, with a promise never to sell. However, the White House Cryptocurrency Summit on March 7 failed to release substantial policies, leading to market disappointment and a 3% drop in Bitcoin price. Although the US has not directly purchased Bitcoin in the short term, Trump's policy marks a historic turning point in US crypto regulation, promoting the legitimacy of crypto assets and prompting other countries like Japan, Russia, and China to reassess cryptocurrency reserve strategies. Trump's move may trigger global crypto policy adjustments and have far-reaching impacts on geopolitical competition.

5.2 Continued MEME Craze in BNB Ecosystem

In March 2025, Binance founder CZ and He Yi once again drove rapid growth in the BNB ecosystem through high-traffic, strong narrative marketing activities. The event began with MGX, an Abu Dhabi technology investment company, investing $2 billion in Binance, setting a record for the largest single investment in the crypto industry to date. Binance then posted a tweet with an image of a cartoon character wearing a Middle Eastern-style headdress, and CZ retweeted with the caption "Mubarak", a word in Arabic with deep cultural and religious significance, widely used in names, festival greetings, and daily expressions, conveying blessings and good wishes. Subsequent CZ interactions and Binance contract launches helped the Mubarak token's market cap break $220 million. In the following days, CZ and He Yi further drove multiple MEME projects on the BNB chain through high-frequency interactions and retweets of Binance-related fan art. For example, when the Binance Chinese X account posted an organizational chart mentioning Palu, the Palu token's market cap briefly exceeded $70 million after He Yi's interaction. CZ and He Yi's tweet content dramatically shifted from personal expression to systematic market guidance, with each tweet becoming a crucial market sentiment indicator.

Additionally, Binance continued to generate market heat by launching new features and activities. The Binance Alpha 2.0 feature allows users to directly purchase Binance Alpha projects through the Binance app with zero fees, lowering the barrier to BNB MEME trading and optimizing the trading experience. The exclusive IEO activity between Binance Web3 wallet and PancakeSwap attracted users to invest funds in the Binance wallet, achieving on-chain asset inflow. The community voting mechanism for listing and delisting tokens gives users a certain degree of decision-making participation to attract attention.

6. Next Month's Outlook

6.1 Progress of Bitcoin Reserve Bills in US States

Since President Trump signed the Bitcoin bill, U.S. states have made significant progress in promoting Bitcoin-related legislation. As of March 2025, over 20 states have proposed or are reviewing Bitcoin reserve bills, covering aspects such as public fund allocation, tax incentives, and regulatory frameworks. The passage of these bills will enable states to invest a portion of public funds in digital assets like Bitcoin, with total investments potentially exceeding $23 billion. On March 6, the Texas Senate passed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill" with a vote of 25 to 5. The bill still needs to pass the House and be signed by the governor to become law. On March 25, the Oklahoma House passed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill" with a vote of 77 to 15, allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin or digital assets with a market cap over $500 billion, making Oklahoma the fourth state after Texas, Arizona, and Utah to pass such a bill in one chamber. However, not all states' Bitcoin reserve bills have passed smoothly. For example, bills in Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota were rejected due to concerns about the compatibility of digital assets with traditional fiscal systems. Additionally, the governor's attitude has a significant impact on the bill's passage.

Overall, Trump's signing of the Bitcoin bill provided policy support and a demonstration effect for states, inspiring state legislatures to actively promote Bitcoin reserve bills. However, the passage of these bills is still influenced by factors such as each state's political environment, fiscal conditions, and public opinion. As more states review and vote on Bitcoin reserve bills, it is expected that more states will join the Bitcoin reserve ranks, further promoting growth and development in the digital asset sector in the United States.

6.2 SOL, XRP, ADA, and Other Trump-Related Token Speculation Expectations

Trump-related crypto assets are mainly divided into two categories: U.S. strategic reserve assets and WLFI (World Liberty Financial) associated assets. U.S. strategic reserve assets are projects personally supported by Trump for inclusion in national asset reserves, carrying high political symbolism. WLFI is a DeFi project supported by Trump and his family, holding a large number of Altcoins and planning to launch a WLFI asset reserve. Currently, tokens like SOL, XRP, and ADA may become key focuses during Trump's term, potentially attracting attention through continuous speculation and event-driven promotions, especially at critical nodes related to ETF approvals.

Assets related to WLFI, such as TRX, ONDO, MOVE, ENA, LINK, and AAVE, have smaller market caps and high volatility, indicating high speculative nature. WLFI's position dynamics often trigger dramatic price fluctuations in these tokens, so the further development of such assets may become a market focus in the future.