- During Donald Trump's inauguration ceremony on January 20th, Bitcoin surged to a historical high of $109,000, but subsequently fell back to $87,816 amid market fluctuations.
- Although bulls expect BTC to break through $100,000 and push towards $150,000, bearish analysts estimate the likelihood of reaching $150,000 at 29%.
In January 2025, Bitcoin reached a historical high of $109,000, but struggled to maintain its growth momentum, hovering around $100,000, and then crashed after former President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Colombia and China.
Over the past 14 days, Bitcoin has dropped 14%, currently trading at $84,353, with trading volume decreasing by 10.41% to $28.7 billion. This decline is primarily due to escalating trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, with global market instability continuing to impact investor sentiment.
Bullish Scenario
Despite recent volatility, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's trajectory in 2025, predicting a surge to $100,000 in April and potentially climbing to $180,000 by year-end. This prospect is largely driven by increasing institutional investor interest as financial institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Investment continue to invest in Bitcoin ETFs.
Additionally, Coinglass data shows that over the past seven days, Bitcoin ETF total trading volume reached $125.08 million, with a market cap of $10.098 billion and total AUM of $10.206 billion. Notably, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF led the ETFs with a 5.31% increase, while open interest options rose 1.67% to $36.3 billion.
Beyond ETFs, listed companies are increasing Bitcoin holdings, demonstrating long-term confidence. MicroStrategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 506,137 BTC, followed by MARA Holdings with 46,374 BTC, and Riot Platforms with 18,692 BTC, further solidifying Bitcoin's status as a strategic asset.
In terms of legislation, Bitcoin's status as a fiscal asset is gaining momentum at the state level, with Oklahoma recently passing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, joining Texas, Arizona, and Utah in incorporating Bitcoin into their financial frameworks.
However, to sustain Bitcoin's bullish momentum, it must break through key resistance levels at $90,700 and $95,000. A decisive move beyond these areas could reignite buying pressure and drive BTC to new highs.
Bearish Scenario
Despite widespread optimism, some analysts warn that negative factors could lead to a pullback or continued consolidation in April. The bull market index, a key indicator of market strength, has fallen to a two-year low of 20, suggesting potential structural changes that may limit Bitcoin's upside.
Polymarket also reflects skepticism, placing the probability of BTC reaching $110,000 at 61% but lacking confidence in sustained growth above this level. Moreover, if Bitcoin fails to regain momentum, analysts believe $73,800 and $70,000 are critical support areas that could come into play.
Further increasing uncertainty is our recent report that Donald Trump's global reciprocal tariffs will take effect on April 2nd, potentially exacerbating financial market volatility, driving up inflation, disrupting supply chains, and putting assets like Bitcoin at risk. However, reports suggest Trump might soften his stance, which could help alleviate investor concerns and provide some relief for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
That's all for today's article. We're currently in a bull market with dynamic changes, and we share crypto insights daily. If you're unsure how to navigate the bull market, follow (WeChat official account: Sponge Evolution Theory) for free spot crypto strategies and layout techniques. Welcome to discuss with like-minded crypto enthusiasts!~
