Bitcoin's current 4H level support is effective, and the upward shock is testing the daily resistance again. The small-level trend is still strong. If it accelerates after the shock, it is expected to directly break through the key pressure level. Once it breaks through the upper edge of the rising channel, pay attention to the selling pressure. If the volume continues to increase and the bulls take over, BTC is expected to hit 9W+!
Is Ethereum reaching a critical turning point? A whale has fled the exchange with 600,000 ETH, and the market bottom has appeared!
According to on-chain data, whale have withdrawn more than 600,000 ETH from exchanges in the past few days, and the stock has dropped sharply to form a "deep pit". Usually, smart money will transfer to exchanges to sell at high prices, and withdraw a large amount of coins at low prices, which is often a signal that the market is about to rebound.
Looking back at historical trends, ETH’s callback cycle is usually around 3 months:
- After falling from November 2021 to the end of January of the following year, it rebounded to 3200-3500.
- After falling from May to August 2023, it rebounded to 2800 and broke through the previous high.
- Currently, ETH has been falling since December last year, and the correction time has been 3 months. The short selling pressure has been basically released, and the market may usher in a strong rebound.
In addition, the market will usher in two major catalysts:
- Prague upgrade: Technical benefits boost market confidence.
- Trump’s tariff policy will be implemented in April: after the uncertainty is eliminated, it is expected to drive market recovery.
In the short term, if ETH follows the historical trend, the rebound target will be at least 2800-3000. In a more optimistic scenario, the Prague upgrade will help push the price to challenge 3200-4000. Currently, it is at the stage bottom, and there is limited room for further decline. The subsequent trend deserves special attention.
Bitcoin and Solana have recently received multiple positive signals:
MicroStrategy resumes coin purchases, market leaders return
Last weekend, MicroStrategy increased its holdings of Bitcoin again after a few weeks, and is expected to spend billions of dollars to purchase it, directly pushing BTC up by more than 1,000 points. This not only boosts market confidence, but also means that institutional funds are flowing back in.
Solana ETF progress accelerates, Fidelity joins the game
Fidelity, the world's second largest asset management company , registered the Solana Fund in Delaware and is expected to submit an application for the Sol spot ETF within a few weeks. Currently, Sol's ETF application lineup is luxurious, including Wall Street giants such as Franklin, Grayscale, Vanda, BitWise , etc. In addition, the CME Group has launched the Solana futures ETF last week, so it is only a matter of time before the spot ETF is approved.
Prague upgrade enters final sprint
This Wednesday, Ethereum will deploy the Hoodi testnet upgrade , which is the last step of the Prague upgrade. After success, the official upgrade time will be determined. ETH prices have rebounded significantly recently, and market sentiment continues to heat up.
Recently, Solana, which we have deployed, has achieved ideal returns, and Ethereum has also risen. The market is gradually recovering, and interested friends can continue to pay attention and look for the next wave of entry opportunities!
Market focus this week: PCE data, interest rate cut expectations and April market outlook
PCE inflation data will be released at 8:30 pm this Friday
The focus of the market is whether Trump's tariff policy will push up inflation and affect the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts .
- PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index): The previous value and market expectations were both 2.5% , with no change for now.
- Core PCE: Expected to rise by 0.1% , slightly bearish, but the final data is still uncertain.
- CPI (Consumer Price Index): This month's data was better than expected and the capital market surged, so PCE may still bring surprises.
The Fed has a clear timeline for rate cuts, with a high probability of a rate cut in June
- The probability of a rate cut at the June 19 interest rate meeting : One rate cut: 70% Two rate cuts: 8.4% Total probability of a rate cut: 78% , which is basically a done deal.
- Short-term market drivers : On April 1, the Federal Reserve will officially end quantitative tightening (QT) , and this policy shift may support market sentiment.
Market trend after April 1: Are all the positive factors exhausted or is a new round of rise coming?
- The Fed’s QT stops → There may be a short-term correction (the market digests the good news in advance).
- Trump’s tariff policy is implemented → all the negative factors are out (hedge against the fading of QT’s positive factors).
Strategic Outlook: A new round of rebound may come in early April
Current strategy: Buy on dips and wait for the market to stabilize in early April. The rebound is expected to last about a month.
The market situation in April may be determined by the game between the Federal Reserve’s policies and Trump’s policies. The opportunities are worth paying attention to!
Today's article ends here. We are currently in a bull market, and the situation is turbulent. We share passwords every day. If you don't know what to do in a bull market, welcome to follow the official account, Miao Jie Talks about Coins, bull market spot passwords, layout strategies, free sharing. Let's embrace the bull market, increase the winning rate, and say goodbye to being trapped at high levels. Free communication + Q: 3806326575
