Refute the bearish market sentiment! Analyst PlanB: The real bull market has not yet come, so how can there be a bear market?

Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as instructed: As the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating after a recent crash, market analysts have divergent views on the future trend. Well-known Bitcoin analyst PlanB predicts that Bitcoin will continue to rise steadily, while CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes the bull market has ended and the market will enter a bear market or sideways consolidation phase in the next 6 to 12 months.

PlanB: The Bull Market Remains, Where's the Bear Market?

Bitcoin analyst PlanB recently stated that he disagrees with the prevalent view in the market that a "bear market has arrived." He pointed out that Bitcoin's 200-week arithmetic and geometric means have been close together for over a year, indicating reduced volatility and a steady, sustained uptrend, doubling from $20k to $40k in 2023 and from $40k to $80k in 2024. He gave examples that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach $160k in 2025, $320k in 2026, and even $640k in 2027. PlanB further pointed out that this stable growth may indicate that the Bitcoin market is gradually maturing, and the traditional four-year cycle pattern may end prematurely. A true bear market should only occur after a "real bull market," and the current market does not show obvious signs of a bull market, so it is difficult to assert whether a bear market will occur. When someone questioned whether this means his "Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model" is no longer valid, PlanB refuted that if Bitcoin's price develops as he predicted, the average price in the coming years will reach $300,000, still within the S2F forecast range (between $250,000 and $1 million).

CryptoQuant Founder: The Bull Market is Over, Bitcoin Enters a Bear Market or Sideways Period

In contrast to PlanB's optimistic attitude, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes that the Bitcoin bull market has ended and the market may enter a bear market or sideways consolidation in the next 6 to 12 months. He emphasized that all on-chain indicators are signaling bear market signals, and new capital inflows to the market have slowed down, with recent large-scale holders selling Bitcoin at lower prices, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the market. Ki Young Ju pointed out that his analysis is based on principal component analysis (PCA) of on-chain indicators such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, calculating the trend changes of the 365-day moving average. The data shows that market liquidity has declined, and the price has failed to be pushed up even after large trading volumes appeared around $100,000. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen capital outflows for three consecutive weeks, indicating a lack of market momentum.

The Future Market Direction Remains to be Observed

PlanB and Ki Young Ju represent two different views in the market. One believes that the Bitcoin market is maturing and the price will continue to rise steadily, while the other believes the bull market has ended and the market will enter a period of consolidation or correction in the coming months. Whether Bitcoin will continue to rise steadily or face a period of adjustment, the market will provide the answer in the coming months.