Odaily星球日报讯 Collective Shift 首席执行官 Ben Simpson 表示，比特币从 1 月峰值回调是典型的周期调整，并不反常，价格顶部尚未到来。Simpson 说道：“我认为牛市还没有结束；我认为周期的峰值因宏观条件而被推迟，全球流动性不佳，这对加密货币不利。与上一个周期的 12 次相比，这是比特币在本周期中仅有的第三或第四次超过 25%的回调。市场过热，需要降温，市场需要找到新的基础，现在我们正在等待下一个新叙事。” Derive 创始人 Nick Forster 持类似观点，他表示：“比特币可能处于正常回调阶段，周期峰值尚未到来。从历史上看，比特币在长期上涨过程中会经历这种类型的回调，没有理由认为这次会有所不同。”Forster 补充说，比特币未来六个月的命运似乎越来越与传统市场挂钩。Collective Shift 的 Simpson 表示，下一个叙事可能围绕美国降息、量化紧缩放松和全球流动性增加展开。（Cointelegraph）

Odaily星球日报讯 Collective Shift 首席执行官 Ben Simpson 表示，比特币从 1 月峰值回调是典型的周期调整，并不反常，价格顶部尚未到来。Simpson 说道：“我认为牛市还没有结束；我认为周期的峰值因宏观条件而被推迟，全球流动性不佳，这对加密货币不利。与上一个周期的 12 次相比，这是比特币在本周期中仅有的第三或第四次超过 25%的回调。市场过热，需要降温，市场需要找到新的基础，现在我们正在等待下一个新叙事。”Derive 创始人 Nick Forster 持类似观点，他表示：“比特币可能处于正常回调阶段，周期峰值尚未到来。从历史上看，比特币在长期上涨过程中会经历这种类型的回调，没有理由认为这次会有所不同。”Forster 补充说，比特币未来六个月的命运似乎越来越与传统市场挂钩。Collective Shift 的 Simpson 表示，下一个叙事可能围绕美国降息、量化紧缩放松和全球流动性增加展开。（Cointelegraph）

分析师：比特币仅经历“正常调整”，市场在等待下一个叙事

Odaily reports that Ben Simpson, CEO of Collective Shift, said that the Bitcoin pullback from the January peak is a typical cyclical adjustment and is not abnormal, and the price top has not yet arrived. Simpson said: "I don't think the bull market is over; I think the peak of the cycle has been delayed due to macroeconomic conditions, with poor global liquidity being unfavorable for cryptocurrencies. Compared to 12 times in the previous cycle, this is only the third or fourth time Bitcoin has seen a correction of more than 25% in this cycle. The market is overheated and needs to cool down, the market needs to find a new basis, and we are now waiting for the next new narrative." Derive founder Nick Forster holds a similar view, stating that "Bitcoin may be in a normal correction phase, and the cycle peak has not yet arrived. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced this type of correction during its long-term uptrend, and there is no reason to believe this time will be different." Forster added that Bitcoin's fate over the next six months seems increasingly linked to the traditional market. Collective Shift's Simpson said the next narrative may revolve around US interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and increased global liquidity.

Odaily Odaily report: Collective Shift CEO Ben Simpson said that the pullback of Bitcoin from the January peak is a typical cyclical adjustment, which is not abnormal, and the price top has not yet arrived. Simpson said: "I don't think the bull market is over; I think the peak of the cycle has been delayed due to macroeconomic conditions, with poor global liquidity being unfavorable to cryptocurrencies. Compared to 12 times in the previous cycle, this is only the third or fourth time Bitcoin has seen a correction of more than 25% in this cycle. The market is overheated and needs to cool down, the market needs to find a new basis, and now we are waiting for the next new narrative." Derive founder Nick Forster holds a similar view, saying: "Bitcoin may be in a normal correction phase, and the cycle peak has not yet arrived. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced this type of correction during its long-term uptrend, and there is no reason to believe this time will be different." Forster added that Bitcoin's fate over the next six months seems increasingly linked to the traditional market. Collective Shift's Simpson said the next narrative may revolve around US interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and increased global liquidity.

Analyst: Bitcoin is only experiencing a "normal adjustment" and the market is waiting for the next narrative

Odaily reports that according to a research report from the decentralized crypto-based options platform Derive, the calm recovery in the BTC market may be temporary and could lay the groundwork for a storm that triggers significant price volatility. Since March 12, BTC has stabilized in the range of $80,000 to $85,000, and this consolidation typically occurs after a significant directional change. Due to various factors, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and disappointment over the lack of new purchases for the US strategic BTC reserve, the price plummeted from $100,000 to below $80,000 in the past few weeks. With the recent consolidation, key volatility indicators have declined, approaching monthly lows. However, volatility has a mean-reverting nature, which means the low-volatility mechanism may soon pave the way for price turbulence. (CoinDesk)

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s current stability is temporary, and it will soon experience large price fluctuations

Odaily reports that QCP posted on its official channel that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this Wednesday is extremely low, but any dovish signals from Powell could become a catalyst for the upward momentum of Bitcoin. As the United States shifts from "fiscal dominance" (government spending-driven growth) to the deficit reduction pushed by Trump, the policy burden is once again falling on monetary policy. While QCP does not expect the Federal Reserve to make an unexpected rate cut, dovish signals could trigger upward momentum in the market. Macroeconomic volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX index falling to around 20, and Bitcoin's volatility has also declined, currently fluctuating between $80,000 and $85,000. In the absence of new tariff news, geopolitics has returned to the spotlight. Gold prices have broken through $3,000, while Bitcoin continues to show a negative correlation. Historically, cryptocurrency prices often lag behind changes in global liquidity conditions. With the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift and new rounds of stimulus measures from Europe and China, Bitcoin may see a new round of upward momentum after this adjustment.

QCP: Macro volatility has eased slightly, and Bitcoin may usher in a new round of rising prices after this adjustment

Odaily reports that Bitfinex has released a new analysis report, which points out that Bitcoin fell to a low of $77,041 last week, with a pullback of 29.7%, which is the second deep correction in this bull market. At the same time, the continuous outflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF (a total of $921.4 million last week) indicates that institutional buyers do not yet have enough strength to offset the selling pressure. Historically, when the inflow of new capital slows down and the cost base trend changes, it indicates that the demand environment is weakening. As Bitcoin struggles to maintain above critical levels, this trend is becoming more and more evident. Without new buyers entering the market, Bitcoin may face the risk of long-term consolidation, and may even fall further as weaker buyers continue to exit their positions. The key factor to watch is whether long-term holders or institutional demand will reappear at lower market levels. If more well-funded investors start to absorb Bitcoin sell-offs, it may signal a shift towards accumulation, which could stabilize the price trend and reverse market sentiment.