Dynamic Zone Weekly: Trump's speech at the White House Crypto Summit, the United States establishes a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, and tariffs are delayed...

Important Events Overview This Week (3/2-3/8)

In the early hours of today, US President Trump hosted the inaugural Crypto Summit at the White House, however, as he mainly reiterated the content of the "US Strategic Bit Coin Reserve" executive order, and did not further release relevant policy details, the Bit Coin price once dropped to $85,000, and the community criticized it constantly.

US President Trump officially signed the Bit Coin Strategic Reserve executive order, with an estimated 200,000 Bit Coins planned, experts analyze that the first batch will hold 90,000 BTC (worth about $79.2 billion), and the 108,000 BTC (Bitfinex hacker case) previously seized by the government will be returned to the victims and not included in the reserve.

Trump posted that he will advance the crypto currency strategic reserve including XRP, SOL and ADA (later supplemented to mention Bit Coin and Ethereum), and the crypto market collectively rallied.

• Bit Coin: Has the price bottomed out? Standard Chartered Bank: Short-term test of $69,000 - $76,500 key support level; Analysts warn "not yet bottomed out": May fall below $70,000.
• Interest Rates: Japan's government bond yields have risen to their highest level in over 10 years; Fed officials estimate that there may be two rate cuts this year.
  
• US Regulation: The SEC's attitude has changed, which may drive institutional investors to deploy DeFi market.
• AI Agent: Manus, an AI that can automatically execute trades and develop Web3 applications, has invitation codes that have soared to 200,000 RMB.
• Ethereum: The Foundation announced in the AMA native Rollup, Blob fee model and other technical upgrades, but the market reaction was cold and the mood was low, and investors began turning to Solana.
• Taiwan: The Financial Supervisory Commission new regulations require VASP (Virtual Asset Service Providers) to store 70-80% of customer assets in cold wallets. Taiwan is seizing the opportunity to become an asset management center in Asia.

Changes in Trading Market Data This Week

Sentiment and Sectors

1. Fear and Greed Index

The market sentiment indicator this week rebounded from 26 (Extreme Fear) to 34 (Fear), and remained in the (Fear) and (Extreme Fear) range throughout the week.

2. Sector Performance

Artemis data shows that the average decline of the blockchain sector this week was -6.1%. The top three performing sectors were Gen 1 Smart Contract (+15.9%), Oracle (+7.7%), and Exchange Tokens (+2.5%).

This week, the price increase of Bitcoin and Ethereum was +3.8% and -2.6% respectively. The worst performing sectors were Data Availability (-22.2%), Bridge (-19.5%), and Staking Services (-18.5%).

Market Liquidity

1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply

This week, the total cryptocurrency market cap showed a decrease from $3.17 trillion to $2.95 trillion. BTC dominance is 59.39%, and ETH dominance is 9.08%.

The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $206.22 billion to $207.48 billion this week.

2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges

The data shows that the net inflow trend of stablecoins on exchanges further deteriorated this week, with a significant decrease in market capital inflow, indicating that investors are taking a cautious stance on the current market trend and deploying capital in a more conservative manner.

Compared to the daily peak net inflow of $15.4 billion in December 2022, the weekly peak net inflow has turned negative, reaching a low of -$3.36 billion, indicating a significant decrease in market activity. Particularly since mid-February, the net inflow of stablecoins on exchanges has remained negative, suggesting a lack of strong capital momentum in the short term, which may affect subsequent market liquidity and price volatility.

3. Cryptocurrency Dynamics

In the cryptocurrency market this week, Renzo, Cardano, and Dego Finance led with gains of +30.5%, +29.4%, and +25% respectively.

According to CMC data, the current Altcoin Season Index is 14 (up -9 from the previous week).

The current Bull Market Peak Signals are 0/30, indicating that no exit signals have been triggered yet.

Bitcoin Technical Indicators

1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows

This week, Bitcoin ETF flows saw an outflow of $235.6 million, a situation that has improved somewhat.

2. Bitcoin Open Interest Falls Below $50 Billion

According to data, the total open interest has declined to $49.46 billion, roughly returning to the level seen in early November 2022.

3. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($87,000) is in the "Consider Buying" range.

4. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index

This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained in negative territory, indicating relatively weak buying demand in the US market. It briefly rebounded on March 3rd but then turned negative again, suggesting that there is still some selling pressure in the market.

Note: A positive premium usually indicates stronger buying power from US investors compared to the global market, but if the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, it is generally considered a buying opportunity.

5. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss

The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator shows that market sentiment continues to fluctuate, with the price consolidating around $90,000 recently. The realized profits have declined significantly from the peak in December 2022 and are gradually approaching the zero line, indicating an increase in profit-taking by market participants.

This week, the Net Realized Profit/Loss has remained in the range of $0 billion to $2.6 billion, further declining from the peak in early January. Although the selling pressure has eased, the current profit-taking scale is still relatively low, and the potential buying momentum has not fully recovered yet. The future market trend will depend on the changes in capital flows and market sentiment.

6. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders

According to on-chain data, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holders (LTH) position has seen a significant change this week, turning positive recently. Long-term holders have started to increase their positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment from selling to replenishing positions.

Compared to the selling pressure seen from December 2022 to early February, the current selling pressure has clearly weakened, and the selling behavior of long-term holders has stabilized, even showing signs of accumulation. This may be a signal that market stability is improving and could provide potential support for Bitcoin prices. Investors should pay attention to the subsequent capital flows and market trend changes.

7. Bitcoin On-Chain Buying Power

According to on-chain data, the supply of Bitcoin Short-Term Holders (STH) has continued to rise, indicating increased market activity, with a recent trend of capital inflows into short-term trading positions. Over the past few weeks, the supply of Short-Term Holders has grown significantly, reflecting increased participation by short-term traders in the market, which may further drive price volatility.

At the same time, the supply of Long-Term Holders (LTH) has been declining since October last year, as some long-term holders have chosen to realize profits at higher prices, providing liquidity to the market, but also bringing some selling pressure. Going forward, it will be important to monitor whether Short-Term Holders will continue to drive market sentiment, or if profit-taking will lead to a correction, while also tracking changes in Long-Term Holder positions to assess the overall health of the market.

This Week's Market Analysis News

1. Trump White House Crypto Summit: Reaffirms Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order with "Only One Update", BTC Dips to $85,000

During the crypto summit, Trump mainly reiterated the content of the executive order to establish a "US strategic Bitcoin reserve", failing to meet market expectations for further policy details, leading to a decline in the Bitcoin price. (Continue reading)

2. Arthur Hayes Bearish on Trump's Bitcoin and Altcoin Reserves: US Government Has No Money, Just Talk

US President Trump announced yesterday that he will include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA in the crypto asset strategic reserve, causing the crypto market to surge across the board. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes poured cold water on the idea today, saying the US government lacks the budget support, and the establishment of reserves is currently just talk. (Continue reading)

3. Trump's Bombshell >> Bitcoin Climbs to $95,000, Ethereum Breaks $2,400, Igniting XRP, SOL and ADA Reserve Frenzy

Last night, Trump posted on Truthsocial that he would advance a crypto asset strategic reserve including XRP, SOL and ADA (later adding Bitcoin and Ethereum), causing the crypto market to collectively surge. (Continue reading)

4. Trump's Son Eric Trump Has a 100% Failure Rate on His BTC and ETH "Calls" This Year, Bad Luck or Premeditated?

Last night, US President Trump's son Eric Trump "suggested" holding cryptocurrencies, and the crypto market immediately entered a new round of declines. The timing is so coincidental that some community members suspect it was intentional. Furthermore, a review of Eric Trump's 3 tweets this year calling the market shows a 100% failure rate. (Continue reading)

5. Trump Orders "Suspension of Sale of 200,000 Seized BTC" to Resolve $17 Billion Potential Selling Pressure, Bitcoin Rebounds to $88,000

According to the Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order signed by Trump, the US government will temporarily suspend the sale of the approximately 200,000 seized Bitcoins, which at current prices is equivalent to reducing $17 billion in selling pressure. (Continue reading)

Crypto Regulatory Updates Around the World

1. Vietnamese Police: Paying with PI Coin Punishable by Up to 1 Billion VND Fine, Pi Network Poses High Risks as It Lacks Asset Properties

2. Breaking News >> ACE Exchange Exposed for "Not Paying Creditor Interest"! Users Furious: No Customer Service, CEO Already Resigned

The company registered as Ace Digital Innovation, which was renamed to Yuntong Digital Innovation, was embroiled in a wage arrears incident earlier this year, and some creditors have not received their monthly interest payments to date. (Continue reading)

3. Taiwan FSC New Regulation: VASP Firms Must Store 70-80% of Customer Assets in Cold Wallets

The Taiwan FSC Securities and Futures Bureau announced on the 5th that VASP operators must, based on their information security management system certification status, store 70-80% of customer assets in cold wallets. (Continue reading)

Next Week's Market Highlights

3/11 (Tuesday)

• Japan: Q4 GDP QoQ, published 0.7%, forecast 0.3%
• US: January JOLTS Job Openings, forecast 7.600M

3/12 (Wednesday)

• US: February Core CPI MoM, forecast 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• US: February CPI MoM, forecast 0.3%, prior 0.5%
• US: February CPI YoY, forecast 3.0%
• US: Crude Oil Inventories, prior 3.614M
• Canada: Interest Rate Decision, prior 3.00%

3/13 (Thursday)

• US: Initial Jobless Claims, prior 221K
• US: February PPI MoM, forecast 0.3%, prior 0.4%

3/14 (Friday)

• UK: January GDP MoM, prior 0.4%
• Eurozone: Germany February CPI MoM, published 0.4%, prior -0.2%

Recommended Events

1. [BlockTempo Meetup #157] Can't Tell if It's a Bull or Bear Market? Survival Guide in a Volatile Market!

Date: 3/13 (Thu) (Event Link)