QCP: BTC price movements are more driven by macroeconomic factors

Odaily reported that as the market continues to consolidate, BTC's market dominance has risen to around 60%, close to a four-year high, while ETH and other continue to underperform. The recent LIBRA "rug pull" scandal involving Argentine President Milei is not a good omen for similar projects or those expecting an /MEME coin season. As BTC stabilizes in the middle of the range, implied volatility continues to decline, which is not surprising as 7-day realized volatility has decreased. In the absence of significant cryptocurrency-specific catalysts, price movements seem to be more driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly the stable correlation between BTC and the US stock market. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties (tariffs, debt ceiling, inflation, etc.) and the unpredictability of Trump, cryptocurrency implied volatility and VIX remain low. BTC is relatively unaffected by recent macroeconomic data, and open interest (OI) has not recovered significantly since the end of January. This suggests that the cryptocurrency options market is waiting for specific policy changes, not just supportive rhetoric for cryptocurrencies. The current volatility levels are similar to Q2-Q3 of last year, when BTC encountered difficulties breaking out of a multi-month range. Instead, most capital flows are concentrated in short-term option selling or attempts to trade the range, rather than positioning for a significant breakout.