Important Events Overview of the Week (2/9-2/15)
Pi Network announced the launch of its mainnet on 2/20, with OKX exchange opening trading simultaneously, followed by restricting deposit and withdrawal for Chinese users, causing dissatisfaction in the community. Whether the Taiwan market will be affected remains to be observed, and the Financial Supervisory Commission reminded that transactions without completed KYC may violate the Anti-Money Laundering Act.
Binance listed $TST, causing the token price to surge 300% and the market cap to exceed $360 million. CZ later clarified that he did not participate in the token, and emphasized that the token listing process will be reviewed, with the community questioning insider trading.
CZ revealed that his pet's name is "Broccoli", and the related meme coins surged in a short period of time. CZ later clarified that he will not issue personal meme coins, but the market hype remains high.
Argentine President Javier Milei briefly posted on X to promote the token $LIBRA, but quickly deleted it, emphasizing that he has no connection with the project. At the same time, the team behind the token also issued a statement clarifying that $LIBRA has no relationship with the president, and $LIBRA plummeted 95% in a short period of time, causing heavy losses for many investors.
- BTC: The options market indicates a weakening of bullish sentiment.
- Altcoins: Glassnode points out that the market has entered a correction period.
- US: The SEC has accepted the spot ETF applications for DOGE and XRP, with an estimated 75% chance of approval; Fed Chair Powell expressed support for cryptocurrency and banking cooperation, avoiding over-regulation; Trump nominated a16z's crypto policy executive Brian Quintenz as CFTC chairman candidate.
- Taiwan: The Financial Supervisory Commission plans to allow banks to issue stablecoins pegged to the New Taiwan Dollar or US Dollar, with a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison and a $200 million fine for market manipulation; P2P trading regulation is tightened, and VASP operators must register by 3/31, or face a fine of up to $50 million and 2 years in prison.
- Trade Policy: Trump signed the "Reciprocal Tariff Plan", affecting TSMC and Intel.
- Binance: Applied with the SEC for a 60-day suspension of review; liquidated over 90% of its own BTC and ETH.
- NFT: "Doodles" shifted to Solana for token launch.
Changes in the Trading Market Data This Week
Sentiment and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
The market sentiment indicator this week ranged from 46 (Neutral) to 48 (Neutral), staying in the (Neutral) range throughout the week.
2. Sector Performance
Artemis data shows that the average gain of the blockchain sector this week was 7.6%, with the top three performing sectors being Staking Services (+19.3%), Store of Value (+14.7%), and Bridge (+14.0%).
Here is the English translation of the text, with the content inside <> retained without translation:This week, the price increase of Bitcoin and Ethereum was +0.6% and +3.3% respectively. The worst performing sector was Centralized Exchange (-15.6%), followed by RWA (-5.4%) and Utilities and Services (+3.9%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap and Stablecoin Supply
This week, the data shows that the total cryptocurrency market cap increased from $3.18 trillion to $3.22 trillion. BTC dominance is 57.26%, and ETH dominance is 9.68%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $205.15 billion to $205.51 billion this week.
2. Potential Buying Power on Exchanges
The data shows that the net inflow trend of stablecoins to exchanges this week was relatively stable, indicating that market participants are still deploying funds for potential price volatility. Stablecoin inflows to exchanges are generally seen as a signal of increased market buying power.
However, compared to the peak of a single-day net inflow of $15.8 billion in December last year, the market activity this week still appears sluggish, with a single-day peak net inflow of only $1.72 billion. The momentum of capital inflows continues to weaken, and the market sentiment appears more cautious. Additionally, the lowest single-day net inflow occurred on February 13, at only $180 million, indicating a lack of strong capital driving force in the short term.
3. Crypto Dynamics
In the crypto market this week, BinaryX, PancakeSwap, and Lista DAO led the gains with +504%, +88.4%, and +79.4% respectively.
CMC data shows that the current Altcoin Season Index is 41 (up +13 from last week).
The current Bull Market Top Signals are 0/30, and no top-out warnings have been triggered yet.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows
This week, Bitcoin ETF flows saw an outflow of $368.7 million.
2. Bitcoin Open Interest Rebounds Below $60 Billion
According to data, the total open interest has rebounded to $59.98 billion, roughly back to the level seen in November last year.
3. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart shows that the current Bitcoin price ($97,000) is in the "Consider DCA" range.
4. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index remained in positive territory for most of the time, indicating relatively strong demand in the US market, with little change compared to last week. However, during the period of February 12, the premium index briefly turned negative and experienced a certain degree of decline, suggesting some selling pressure in the US market during that time, before rebounding to positive territory on February 13.
Note: A positive premium may indicate that US investors' buying power is stronger than the global market, but based on historical data, if the negative premium exceeds -0.2%, it is usually a buying opportunity.
5. Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss
The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator suggests that market sentiment continues to fluctuate, but there is no obvious panic selling. Recently, the Bitcoin price has been consolidating at high levels, and the realized net profit/loss has fallen significantly from the peak in December last year, but it is still in positive territory, indicating that while investors are taking profits, the selling pressure is relatively limited.
This week, the Net Realized Profit/Loss has remained in the range of $400 million to $700 million, further declining from the peak at the end of January, indicating that market investor sentiment is becoming more cautious. The selling pressure in the market has eased, and potential buying momentum may be accumulating, providing some support for the future market.
6. Long-Term Bitcoin Holders
On-chain data shows that the net position change of Long-Term Holders (LTH) of Bitcoin is still negative, indicating that the selling pressure has not yet fully subsided. However, compared to the concentrated selling in December last year, the recent selling pressure has significantly weakened, reflecting a stabilization of the market's selling momentum and a slowdown in the selling activity of long-term holders.
It is worth noting that despite the Bitcoin price maintaining at a relatively high level, long-term holders have not shown signs of re-accumulation, indicating that the market remains cautious about the current price range. If the selling pressure further eases in the coming weeks, the possibility of long-term holders resuming accumulation could have a positive impact on market sentiment and provide potential support for further upside in Bitcoin prices.
7. Bitcoin On-Chain Buying Power
Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as requested:According to on-chain data, the supply of Altcoin short-term holders (STH) has continued to rise, indicating increased market activity and a clear trend of capital inflows into short-term trading positions.
In contrast, the supply of Altcoin long-term holders (LTH) has been declining since last December, suggesting that some long-term holders have chosen to realize profits at higher prices. This phenomenon indicates that the market is in a stage of capital rotation, and the de-leveraging behavior of long-term holders may provide liquidity to the short-term market, but it may also increase selling pressure. Going forward, it is necessary to continue to monitor the flow of funds and changes in the holding structure, especially whether short-term holders will further drive market sentiment or if profit-taking will lead to market correction risks.
This Week's Market Analysis News
1. Will Bitcoin rise above $98,000? Options market: Large traders continue to sell calls, bullish sentiment is clearly weakening
Last night, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $98,000 due to the dovish remarks of Federal Reserve Chair Powell and comments from former President Trump. However, the options market shows that investors' expectations for a significant Bitcoin rally in the future are weakening. (Continue reading)
2. Galaxy Digital CEO: There will be a "crypto company IPO boom" in May-June this year! Bitcoin will be included in the US government's reserves within half a year
Galaxy Digital founder and CEO Mike Novogratz recently predicted that with the new SEC leadership in place, he expects a wave of crypto companies to go public in the US in May or June. He is also bullish on Bitcoin being included in the US government's reserves within the next six months. (Continue reading)
3. CZ's dog's name is Broccoli! But CZ emphasizes he won't issue a meme coin: I don't care how the community plays
Binance founder CZ posted the name and picture of his pet dog on the social platform X late last night, which prompted the crypto community to quickly deploy dozens to hundreds of Broccoli-themed meme tokens on the Binance Chain... (Continue reading)
4. CPI Soars > 10-year US Treasury Yield Surges to 4.66%, the Biggest Increase This Year - Fed May Only Cut Rates Once in 2025?
The latest January CPI in the US came in higher than expected, causing the market to significantly delay its expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year. US Treasury traders now expect the next rate cut to be pushed back from September to December, and some experts believe the Fed may not cut rates at all this year if inflation persists. (Continue reading)
5. Altcoins lose $234 billion in market cap in 2 weeks, "the worst in history" - Glassnode: Already in a bear market
Glassnode's latest weekly report shows that while Bitcoin briefly plunged to $93,000 last week, it is still not too far from the starting point of this cycle, and the market is mainly characterized by volatility and sideways consolidation. However, the Altcoin sector has been quite dismal, with a $234 billion decline in market cap over the past two weeks, one of the largest Altcoin crashes on record. (Continue reading)
6. Taiwan Policy Platform Launches "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" Petition: Invest in BTC, Gets 5,000 Endorsements in 2 Months, Government Must Respond
On the Taiwan Public Policy Network Participation Platform, a proposal titled "Taiwan Bitcoin BTC Strategic Reserve Plan" has entered the endorsement stage. The proposer suggests that the government's responsible agency should gradually accumulate BTC reserves through a long-term and stable purchasing strategy, starting with 0.1% of GDP as a pilot. (Continue reading)
Crypto Regulatory Updates Around the World
1. Financial Supervisory Commission Plans to Allow Banks to Issue Stablecoins: Pegged to New Taiwan Dollar, US Dollar, Market Manipulation Punishable by 10 Years in Prison and a 200 Million Fine
2. The "Big Era" of Bank-Issued Stablecoins is Coming? Fed Governor: All Institutions Should Be Allowed to Issue Stablecoins, Helping Strengthen the US Dollar's Global Position
According to a Bloomberg report yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently stated that Stablecoins in the US will benefit from a regulatory framework that should allow both banks and non-banks to issue regulated Stablecoins. He also emphasized that Stablecoins have the potential to maintain and expand the global influence of the US Dollar.
3. South Korea to Implement 3-Stage Plan to Allow Legal Entities to Open Virtual Asset Accounts, Accelerate Stablecoin Regulation
The Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea announced today that it will implement a three-stage plan to allow legal entities to open virtual asset real-name accounts. The first batch will be open to law enforcement agencies, non-profit legal entities, and virtual asset exchanges, and it will be expanded to professional investor legal entities in the second half of this year, with a long-term plan to include general corporate legal entities. (Continue reading)
Next Week's Market Focuses
2/17 (Monday)
- Japan: Q4 GDP (QoQ), Previous 0.3%
2/18 (Tuesday)
- Australia: February Interest Rate Decision, Previous 4.35%
- Hong Kong: January Unemployment Rate, Previous 3.1%
2/19 (Wednesday)
- New Zealand: Interest Rate Decision, Previous 4.25%
- UK: January CPI (YoY), Previous 2.5%
2/20 (Thursday)
- US: FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Hong Kong: January CPI (YoY), Previous 1.40%
- US: Initial Jobless Claims, Previous 213K
- US: February Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Previous 44.3
2/21 (Friday)
- United States: Crude Oil Inventories, Previous Value 4.070M
- United States: February Manufacturing PMI, Previous Value 51.2
- United States: February Services PMI, Previous Value 52.9
- United States: January Existing Home Sales, Previous Value 4.24M
