Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 95.5%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 4.5%。到 5 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 78.6%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 20.6%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.8%。

Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”，美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 95.5%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 4.5%。到 5 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 78.6%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 20.6%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.8%。

美国CPI公布前美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为95.5%

Odaily Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 95.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.5%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by May is 78.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 20.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.8%.

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March is 95.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.5%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged by May is 78.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 20.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.8%.

The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 95.5% before the release of US CPI

Here is the English translation:

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Tuesday that, as the US economy remains resilient and the labor market is relatively strong, the Fed is in no rush to adjust its rate cut policy. After Powell confirmed the delay of further rate cuts, US Treasury prices fell, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose nearly 5 basis points to 4.55%, continuing the momentum of the rebound from this year's low of 4.38% last week.
<BlockTempo - The most influential blockchain news media>US 10-year Treasury yield. Source: CNBC
George C., Head of Fixed Income Americas at DWS...

The Fed is "not in a hurry to cut interest rates" and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.55%. Wall Street is focusing on the January CPI tonight.

Odaily reports that a Reuters survey shows that 67 out of 101 economists surveyed believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of June (nearly 60% of economists in the January survey expected a rate cut by the end of March), and 57 out of 99 economists believe the Federal Reserve will cut rates one or two more times this year (56 out of 102 economists in the January survey had the same expectation). Additionally, 27 out of 46 economists said the inflation risk from tariffs has recently increased, 17 said there was no change, and 2 said it has decreased. (Jinshi)

Reuters poll: More than 60% of economists surveyed believe the Fed will cut interest rates at least once before the end of June

Odaily Odaily News reports that Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," pointed out that Federal Reserve officials are encouraged by recent inflation data, which shows that price pressures remain moderate, suggesting that inflation may soon be closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will begin his two-day congressional testimony on Tuesday, conveying a simple message to Congress: Given the strong economic conditions, the Federal Reserve can calmly decide when and whether to cut interest rates. At the last three meetings of 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a full percentage point, after rates had remained at their highest levels in nearly two decades. Powell is prepared to tell members of the Senate Banking Committee in his speech that "since our policy stance is now much more accommodative than before, and the economy remains strong, we do not need to rush to adjust our policy stance." Powell defended last year's interest rate cuts, saying it was a necessary recalibration of its policy stance to address the improvement in inflation and the cooling of the labor market. If the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation declines to its 2% target faster than expected, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.