Odaily星球日报讯 LBBW 的分析师在一份报告中表示，美联储将密切关注，以确保通胀预期不会失控。这证实了德意志银行分析师的观点，即美联储在今年年底之前不会再次下调利率。他们表示：“如果考虑到通胀风险，下次利率真的上调，美国长期政府债券的收益率可能会飙升。”（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 LBBW 的分析师在一份报告中表示，美联储将密切关注，以确保通胀预期不会失控。这证实了德意志银行分析师的观点，即美联储在今年年底之前不会再次下调利率。他们表示：“如果考虑到通胀风险，下次利率真的上调，美国长期政府债券的收益率可能会飙升。”（金十）

市场分析：美联储将控制通胀预期

Odaily Odaily report: LBBW analysts stated in a report that the Federal Reserve will closely monitor to ensure that inflation expectations do not get out of control. This confirms the view of Deutsche Bank analysts that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again before the end of this year. They said: "If inflation risks are taken into account, the yield on long-term US government bonds could soar the next time interest rates are actually raised." (Gold Ten)

Odaily Odaily reports that analysts at LBBW stated in a report that the Federal Reserve will closely monitor to ensure that inflation expectations do not get out of control. This confirms the view of Deutsche Bank analysts that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again before the end of this year. They said: "If inflation risks are taken into account, the yield on long-term US government bonds could soar the next time interest rates are actually raised." (Gold Ten)

Market analysis: The Fed will control inflation expectations

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The news from Mars Finance shows that over the past week, concerns about the trade war have been lingering in the minds of global investors, and Trump's erratic behavior has exacerbated market volatility. At the same time, the latest non-farm data and the University of Michigan consumer survey have further clouded the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Trump is unlikely to give the market a chance to blink in the coming week, and further news on his tariff plans will continue to attract close attention. In addition, US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's testimony on Capitol Hill may be key factors affecting expectations of a US rate cut in the near term. The key points that the market will focus on in the new week are as follows:

Monday 22:00, ECB President Lagarde participates in a plenary debate on the ECB's 2023 Annual Report
Tuesday 0:00, US January New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation
Tuesday 21:50, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on the economic outlook
Tuesday 23:00, Fed Chair Powell testifies before the Senate and delivers the semi-annual monetary policy report
Wednesday 4:30, FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks
Wednesday 21:30, US January CPI, core CPI
Wednesday 23:00, Fed Chair Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on monetary policy
Thursday 1:00, 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook
Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 8
Thursday 21:30, US January PPI YoY, MoM
Friday 21:30, US January retail sales MoM
Friday 22:15, US January industrial production MoM

Several Wall Street analysts have warned that due to seasonal factors, January is traditionally a more challenging time for CPI forecasting, which increases the potential for market volatility around the data release. According to the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting indicator, the overall CPI year-over-year growth rate is expected to be 2.85% in January, and the core CPI year-over-year growth rate to be 3.13%, only slightly slower than the previous month. This should reinforce market expectations that the Fed will keep rates steady at its March meeting.

Macro outlook for next week: Trump barely leaves the market a chance to blink, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates stable

Odaily Odaily reports that Michael Pound, head of Barclays' global inflation-related research, said that the price of inflation-indexed bonds reflects that the US inflation rate will increase by 0.2 percentage points over the next year, about a quarter of which is due to gasoline. (<金十>)

Barclays: US inflation rate will increase by 0.2 percentage points in the next year

Odaily reports that a research report by CITIC Securities indicates that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US in January 2025 was lower than expected, with the healthcare services, retail, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and the severe cold weather in other parts of the US did not have a significant impact on the overall job market. The declining unemployment rate, rising wage growth, and the smaller-than-expected downward revision in the annual revision suggest a healthy job market. We expect the impact of the government efficiency department (DOGE) led by Musk to be relatively small on the 2025 non-farm employment growth. The non-farm data has broken the relatively optimistic sentiment in the market after the release of the December CPI, and the expectation of rate cuts has been postponed again. The market's focus will now be on the tariff fog and inflation expectations of Trump, and US stocks are expected to maintain high volatility. If the January CPI or tariff plan exceeds expectations, US bond yields and the US dollar index may rise again. We maintain our view that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, each by 25bps. (Gold Ten)