Author: 0xTodd Source: X, @0x_Todd
In the past week, many friends have called me to inquire about the market situation, and I feel it is necessary to publicly share my thoughts and views on the current market situation.
【What has changed】
【The future process】
Those who have been following me for a long time know that I am a long-term investor. So, since 2019, I have had an annual strategy that is updated every year, and 2024-2025 is probably this one, for sharing and discussing with my family.
I. DeepSeek Burst the Bubble
Whether DeepSeek really spent $5 million to train this AI or not, the narrative is like this:【Algorithm Advancement】at least in the short term defeated 【Computing Power Advancement】.
You don't have to dwell on whether this thing is real - since the market unanimously recognizes the $5 million, you have to take it as true.
By the end of 2024, our Altcoin industry, apart from meme, I am reluctant to admit but objectively there is only one narrative left: AI Agent, which is the hope of the whole village.
However, no one expected that the AI Agent would be ruthlessly crushed by DeepSeek from the neighboring true AI track.
The DS team is full of real IQ200, fresh graduates from Tsinghua and Peking University, and medal winners in the International Mathematical Olympiad.
In contrast, the idols in our industry are mostly second-tier programmers who are idle at home, AI engineers who have been fired from big factories or are moonlighting, so we are sometimes forced to have an IQ of 50.
So...
On January 27, I tearfully took profits on all my AI token positions, not selling at the highest point, and had to take a big drawdown, which is painful to admit.
But the colder fact is that this has turned our entire AI Agent track into a joke, and this is likely to be true.
The reason why "narrative" comes before "event" is that this "event" has not yet materialized, and can only rely on "narrative". Once the story can no longer be told, the decline of the track is irreversible.
II. The Motley Crew of Presidents and Presidents
I don't know how everyone felt during the Chinese New Year, but my physical experience is that many relatives and friends are asking how to register on BN or OKX, because they want to buy Trump Coins.
The last time they were so crazy was during the National Day, when they wanted to open accounts and rush into the A-shares.
Shanghai Composite Index Trend Source: Tencent Securities
If I'm not mistaken, those brave warriors who entered the A-shares on October 8 are still hanging on that mountain top.
After taking profits on AI, to be honest, I became more and more afraid, and then I saw this post.
Roughly: The president seems to be in trouble, but for two possible reasons:
1. He doesn't make money through the channels you can see
2. He is an idiot
But I know the answer can't possibly be 2.
Yes! MEME has now become what the president is playing, and he can even make money through channels unknown to us.
Frankly, can our MEME players sit at the same table as Trump?
A hippopotamus from Thailand, a squirrel from the US, a longevity drug that extends the life of flies, can they really sit at the same table as Trump, who sits in the Oval Office?
It's Chinese New Year, adults at one table, kids at another.
Adults drink fine wine, kids can only drink Sprite.
So on that day, I basically sold off all my MEME positions. My MEME position used to have huge unrealized gains, but because I actively lowered my IQ to 50, I didn't complete the great retreat, but kept joining the great revolution.
It feels like a dream.
III. A Top Signal: A High School Guy Earns Millions
I believe that all the families who play MEME, and even those who don't play MEME, have heard about this legendary story recently.
A high school guy, after sitting idle for a month, suddenly hit Jelly, and with a very low cost, he made a big bet and earned millions.
Of course, the story gets more and more exaggerated as it spreads, and there are more and more rumors, I'm not 100% sure this is true, but I know the taste is right.
Looking back at the 1-3 days before the 69K historical top in 2021, I was sighing:
Interns, with returns easily outperforming fund managers
ENS grassroots community contributors, earning millions from airdrops
At that time
Just like
Now
I liked this tweet, where a TIME editor (or possibly a hacker) could immediately harvest countless SOL with a fake tweet.
What does this mean?
It's not that making money is wrong - top players can always make money, even at the bottom of a bear market.
But if the subject becomes ordinary people:
Intern guy makes big money, ENS contributor guy makes big money, high school guy makes big money, editor guy makes big money.
It means: 【At this moment, everyone's hands are very loose】
Experienced poker players all know that it is only when the unrealized gains are extremely high that hands become loose.
This represents the greed index reaching a true peak.
This is a super top signal.
So on the 30th, I cleared out almost all my Altcoins, only keeping BTC and a small portion of mainstream coins ETH/SOL/DOGE/exchange coins.
Although there are still losses, at least I have left some victory fruits.
I admire the brilliant operation of the high school guy, and I also revere the iron law of this alternative investment market.
IV. Doubts about BN and BN's Response
Sigh, to be honest, I don't want to talk about this topic.
As a former CEX practitioner, I have seen this consultant - listing - dumping routine too many times, from the initial anger to the subsequent numbness, I am already used to it.
But in the past, this thing was kept under the table, belonging to "small greed and small corruption are the lubricants of development";
Belonging to "when the water is clear, there are no fish", the water is slightly turbid under the surface, which is part of the game rules.
After all, we are not living in a utopia, not living in a vacuum homeland.
But the thing that is most taboo is to take it from under the table and put it on the table.
I have no intention of criticizing BN or the sister, because this exists in almost every CEX.
If this were in the traditional world, to put it exaggeratedly, it would be a huge scandal that could immediately lay off hundreds of people and dozens of people in shackles.
Maybe the sister would be better off not responding, learning from the celebrities to do a cold treatment, still giving the retail investors a little hope.
But our industry is already dominated by skeptics, and a huge scandal is a heavy blow, ruthlessly swinging at the heart of every holder.
It has shattered the faith of many people.
Our industry really needs "gods", because it is sustained by consensus.
But when people find out that the public servants under the "gods" also want to make some quick money, faith is suddenly extinguished, and it is quickly projected onto the related "gods" - all the Altcoins on BN are now facing a huge skepticism and scrutiny from retail investors. If AI and HOOK are like this, will the other coins really be any better?
V. The Future Script
If we follow the "clinging to the sword in the river" view, this drop is very similar to 5.19, and I suggest everyone to review the trend after 5.19 themselves.
Trend after May 19, source: Bitfinex
If following the May 19 script, the next step would be a prolonged two-month oscillation until even the most loyal holders are shaken off, then a new $Bitcoin ATH.
Of course, some suspect this is the beginning of a bear market, aka the Dec 4 script.
From my personal inclination, I hope this is May 19.
After all, the matter of Bitcoin becoming a US national strategic reserve is moving towards clarity, and one should never underestimate the huge impact of this.
Even if Bitcoin reaches 85K-88K, I would be willing to add more positions.
VI. My position distribution
My current positions:
40% BTC
20% major Altcoins (ETH, SOL, Doge, BNB/MNT)
40% stablecoin lending
Bitcoin is my eternal faith, I think I will never sell BTC again, nor do any swing trading.
Reasons for holding ETH:
To be honest, my faith in ETH is waning.
However, objectively speaking, the President's DeFi projects are buying ETH.
I don't know how many of you family members are trading US stocks, many people regret not following [Nancy Pelosi, the stock goddess of Capitol Hill].
Source: CommonWealth Magazine
Pelosi's heyday was as Speaker of the House, which is only the third-highest position in American politics.
And now Trump, the crypto president, is holding a large position in ETH (although he has already deposited it into an untraceable Coinbase custody), this weight cannot be underestimated.
Secondly, ETH has fallen to its current level, and I feel it has reached the extreme of FUD, and there may be a rebound. I can't buy at the point of no one's attention, but at least I won't sell at the point of no one's attention.
Reasons for holding SOL:
There is a small probability of an ETF;
But the cooling of the AI narrative and the short-term decline of MEME are two small clouds.
Reasons for holding Doge:
Grayscale has launched a Dogecoin trust, and Doge also has a small probability of an ETF
In addition, Musk is working hard in the D.O.G.E department;
And being on the same car with the world's richest man and the "US NDRC chairman", I think I can sleep well.
Reasons for holding exchange Altcoins:
To be blunt, exchanges have no chance of reaching a bigger stage.
Coinbase will not list BNB, and Binance will not list MNT.
But exchanges are the only institutions in our industry that can make money and give back;
If the bear market really comes, exchange Altcoins will be relatively more resistant to declines, and the occasional IEO can even recover some losses, relying on this to get through the bear market.
VII. Cruel view: The good days of the old-timers are over
Aside from the above, I will most likely not hold any Altcoins in large positions in the short term - the reason is also very simple, inflation is too fast.
The speed of new users and new capital entering the market is simply no match for the speed at which these token minting maniacs are printing.
Source: Decrypt
The other day there was a statistic that the top account on Pump Fun had issued 17,000 tokens in 3 months.
Not 170, not 1700, but 17,000! His contribution alone may exceed the total token issuance of the entire 2017 bull market.
Why has the investment strategy of the old-timers become ineffective?
Too many choices!
Too many angles!
Even the same angle has N CAs,
How can the old-timers' Altcoins compete?
The old-timers' favorite strategy: buy a mid-cap Altcoin at $100M or $200M.
Hold it for 2-3 months, betting it will outperform Bitcoin.
However, now it may not even be able to outperform ETH.
And General P's favorite strategy: buy a $10K valuation project on the internal market.
Run away 30 minutes later.
Real men never look back at the explosion.
Obviously, in the era of token hyperinflation, General P is far superior to the old-timers.
I'm not advocating that everyone become a P-soldier, I just hope that at least everyone won't be an old-timer.
VIII. Best position: 50% BTC + 50% stablecoin lending
Additionally, I sincerely advise everyone to hold a certain amount of stablecoins to get through the coming period.
You have to accept the fact that no one can really sell at the absolute top.
The mountain top comes once every 4 years, and in the 1,000+ days you have to find one day to sell, the probability is 1/1000, and very few can do it, they are all super lucky.
At this stage, a 50/50 position is the best choice.
You invest 50% of your principal in lending, we won't talk about mining or arbitrage.
We'll just do the simplest Ethena USDE, now Pendle can still offer an 18% interest rate.
If you're too lazy to mess with Pendle, just throw it into AAVE or the mainstream CEX lending, there's still 10%.
The other 50% is mainly in Bitcoin, quietly waiting for the day when the US Bitcoin strategic reserve arrives.
You have both interest cash flow,
And dreams and beliefs,
You must be comfortable,
Wrapped up.
Of course, you can also allocate 5% to the Altcoin you truly believe in, whether it's ETH, SOL, Doge or any other faith coin.
Allocate another 5% of the funds to go PVP a couple of times, win big once, lose it as consumption, keep your hand in, isn't that great?
Finally, form this yin-yang distribution.
PS: This is also the shape I want to slowly adjust my portfolio to Source: 0xTodd
IX. Finally
I'm quite satisfied with my current positions, after all, this is my 8th year in the crypto industry, with so much experience accumulated.
The only thing I regret a bit is that I've been playing in Osaka these past few days and have been a bit lazy, not organizing these thoughts and releasing them in a timely manner.
The same strategy, if I had said it a few days ago, it might have helped a lot of people, but now it's become a post-mortem analysis.
But it's never too late to mend the pen.
I hope that every family member can achieve their own big results in the crypto market.
Of course, if you can't get the big results, then keeping some small results, earning more spiritual wealth and social wealth, is also not in vain.
Finally, wishing all family members - Happy Year of the Snake, may the golden snake dance wildly.
