Happy New Year! Let me also mention some of the recent market trends that have been quite surprising, as well as some thoughts on the future direction:
1) The emergence of the $TRUMP token has indeed brought a lot of "incremental" users to the crypto space, with many new users entering through channels like Xiaohongshu. However, the wealth-creating effect of the US President MEME token has not had enough time to be digested and absorbed. Even though some incremental users and capital have come in, they may have already had their crypto dreams shattered and been ruthlessly discouraged before they could be converted into on-chain "new users".
However, the TRUMP team has been like a magic mirror, shattering the long-standing "technology, narrative, build, token issuance, and empowerment" ecosystem balance in the crypto space, allowing everyone to see the overly Gambling-centric core of the crypto world.
But with the same Gambling underpinnings, CEX may already be beyond saving, as the self-interested VC, exchanges, and other key ecosystem players will become the biggest obstacle to retail investors' profits. However, DEX naturally does not have these barriers, and after the TRUMP-led destructive liquidity bloodletting, a whole new on-chain prosperity market will be reignited.
Focus on on-chain will be the main theme of 2025, regardless of bull or bear market.
2) DeepSeek's breakthrough in AI large model computing cost pricing may have been a huge technical boon for the AI Agent track, but its impact on the bubble of US stocks and Nvidia has led to a "mistaken killing" of web3 AI Agent assets.
Fundamentally, this is the "rational" deflation of the AI Agent asset issuance narrative bubble, with the market using persistent price declines to reveal a truth - while AI Agent projects have gone through a full cycle of framework standards, monolithic AI, chain-based, DeFai, and MetAiverse narratives, they still have issues like immature technology implementation, orchestrated group acting as the protagonist, and lack of value support in the asset valuation system.
The AI Agent is still on the eve of the arrival of summer, and a thorough reshuffle and reconstruction is needed.
But fortunately, where there is demise, there will also be rebirth.
3) The market suddenly "turned bearish" in the midst of an absolute bullish sentiment. A crypto-friendly government, the ignition of an on-chain spring, and a plethora of products, protocols, and MEME in the market all seemed to point to the imminent arrival of a crypto golden age. But the market unexpectedly turned bearish? Although it's not yet definitive, it will take some time to repair the damaged sentiment and asset losses.
The core logic is simple: the crypto market has too many asset targets, but lacks sufficient incremental users and capital, and relying solely on attention-grabbing FOMO sentiment is unable to drive a broad-based rally of old assets. In other words, everyone has the heart to accompany the industry's growth in PVE, but for survival, they can only engage in endless PVP.
If the industry is to suffer a heavenly tribulation under the nature of excessive Gambling, then the new AI Agent narrative is the Nezha that breaks through all of this.
AI Agent can breathe new life into old narratives, allow on-chain DEX to blossom with new vitality, and bring a new PMF involution cycle centered on products and applications... Even in the short term, AI Agent may have given me a void, but it in no way diminishes my boundless aspirations for it.
Because it can accelerate the integration of AI and the Crypto world, making everything better and better.
