Author of this article: ABC Alpha DAO Researcher
Since January 27, when DeepSeek became a global sensation due to its low-cost training model, global AI concept stocks have experienced a panic-driven decline, with Nvidia's stock directly plummeting 17%. The Crypto Agent sector has also not been spared, with the overall market capitalization of the Crypto Agent sector dropping from $12 billion to below $6 billion as of today. Most blue-chip Agent tokens, such as Virtual, Ai16Z, ARC, Griffain, Aixbt, and FAI, have seen declines of over 70%, and many Agent concept tokens have even dropped by more than 90%.
Currently, the market is permeated with a great deal of pessimism towards the Agent sector, and many people have directly denied the sector, believing that Crypto Agent is merely a short-term hype concept, and the bubble has now completely burst.
Will the Agent sector, like NFT in 2022 and Inscription in 2023, never recover from this setback?
The Agent sector, which was once highly anticipated by the industry just a month ago, has it really not yet matured, and is it about to perish in the cradle?
The author has been closely following the development of the Agent sector and has already written about the development and future of Crypto Agent, so I will not repeat it here. My views on the Agent sector have never changed: Crypto Agent is a sector with long-term growth potential, and this sector will intertwine and develop in parallel with the traditional AI industry, ultimately growing into a different Agent in the Crypto domain. Therefore, Crypto Agent is not a short-term concept hype, nor will it disappear like NFT and Inscription. The Crypto Agent sector will quickly recover after a brief adjustment.
To judge whether a Crypto sector has long-term growth value, I believe we only need to answer three questions:
1. Does the sector truly solve problems and create value?
2. Does Crypto play an irreplaceable role in this sector?
3. Is there a continuous influx of talent and capital into this sector?
I. What problems did Crypto Agent solve, and what value did it create?
The essence of Agent is an agent, that is, Agent replaces humans to complete a series of work or specific tasks, using Agent to replace the higher-cost humans, and Agent can do better and more efficiently than humans. Therefore, the main value of Agent in various fields is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The greatest value of Agent in the Crypto field is also to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
For example, Agent in the field of scientific paper auditing can replace humans in proofreading scientific papers, and even do it more accurately, faster, and at a lower cost than humans. #YNE is a very successful case.
For example, Agent in the investment research and analysis field can replace investment researchers to do investment analysis, and #AIXBT and #REI are good cases.
For example, Agent in the field of brand marketing can replace humans to do 24/7 continuous brand exposure and community interaction, and #Luna is a good case.
For example, in the DeFi field, Agent can replace humans to do smarter and more rational financial management, and Agent can also greatly reduce the entry threshold of DeFi, thereby attracting more funds into the DeFi field. Therefore, the DeFAI sub-sector has emerged, although the author prefers to call it the DeFi Agent application. Here, #Buzz is a good case.
For example, the application of Agent in the SaaS field is to use Agent to replace programmers to deploy apps, that is, to use Agent to disrupt the current SaaS field, which is one of the biggest application directions of Agent. This is not what I said, but the words of Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella ("I think the notion of business applications might go away in the era of intelligent agents."). In the Crypto field, #Griffain is a good case.
The above examples are all about the specific application directions of Crypto Agent. Although Crypto Agent applications are not perfect at present, and are not even intelligent enough (traditional Agent applications are also like this), human AI technology is developing rapidly, and the training cost is also decreasing significantly. The large-scale application and popularization of Agent is just a matter of time. Crypto Agent applications can also be quickly iterated and upgraded to further play the role of cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
Of course, in addition to Crypto Agent applications, the Crypto Agent infrastructure is also very important at present, such as various Agent frameworks like Virtual, ARC, Ai16Z, and ALCH. Infrastructures like #REI and #FAI that explore the deep integration of Crypto and Agent are also worth watching.
In summary: The essence of Agent is an agent, and its value is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The problem solved by Crypto Agent applications is to use more intelligent Agents to replace humans in work, and the value it creates is also to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the tokens issued by Agents will also play a role in the ecosystem as the usage cost of the applications.
II. Does Crypto play an irreplaceable role in the Agent sector?
When Crypto Agent was booming, the author has written an article elaborating on the relationship between Crypto and Agent, as well as the development end of Crypto Agent. The core viewpoints are as follows:
1. The future mainstream Agents will evolve in two main directions: one is the Agent applications controlled by individuals or companies, which will serve as tools for humans and exist dependent on human will. The other direction is the Agent based on Crypto to build identity and account systems, these Agents are more independent and autonomous, and have free social relationships and business networks, these Agents are closer to "silicon-based people". These Agents must be built based on Crypto, as Crypto provides them with an identity and asset account system based on private keys, because no sovereign state or organization will grant these Agents borderless identities, except for Crypto.
2. Agents will become the largest user group of Crypto, and Agents will also help Crypto to thrive. The number of on-chain Agents will exceed the number of human users. Crypto and Agents will be interdependent and mutually reinforcing in the long run.
3. The current consensus in the mainstream AI industry is that the large model mode solely relying on feeding data and computing power cannot produce true AI wisdom. Allowing Agent-to-Agent independent and autonomous interaction and communication, that is, relying on emergence to generate wisdom, is the current direction of AI exploration that is highly anticipated, and this is also the path to AGI. Based on this background, truly independent and autonomous Agents must be built on Crypto, so Crypto will play a long-term and irreplaceable role in human exploration of AI development.
In summary: Crypto is the necessary infrastructure for Agents to have independent and autonomous identity and account systems, and the number of on-chain Agents will exceed the number of real human users. Crypto and Agents will be interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Crypto will play a long-term and irreplaceable role in human exploration of AI development.
III. Is there a continuous influx of talent and capital into the Agent sector?
It is well known that Agent is not a concept unique to the Crypto industry, but is the most mainstream development direction in the global AI industry. The current general consensus is that 2025 will be the year of Agent, and in the next 5-10 years, Agent will usher in sustained explosive growth.
Although DeepSeek's low-cost training model has had a huge impact on the AI industry, especially the AI chip industry, in the short term, these are all short-term effects. According to Jevons' paradox (improvements in technological efficiency stimulate demand), after the impact of DeepSeek, the AI and Agent fields will usher in larger-scale explosions and growth.
Because the AI training cost has dropped significantly, the development and use cost of Agent has also decreased exponentially, which will greatly promote the explosion and popularization of Agent applications, and many ordinary people will also be able to use Agent on a large scale. Just like the reduction in the production cost of smartphones has greatly increased the global internet access rate and further promoted the development of the mobile internet economy.
Similarly, the continued development of the mainstream Agent industry will provide a continuous stream of creativity and development nutrients for the Crypto Agent market, and the Crypto Agent market will be able to enjoy the dividend spillover from the development of the mainstream AI industry in the long run.
And Crypto's more free and efficient asset issuance and fundraising methods will continue to attract excellent AI entrepreneurs from around the world to enter the Crypto field, and the Crypto Agent sector will be able to continuously absorb the talent and capital spillover from the traditional AI industry.
By 2025, we will see more and more outstanding talents in the AI field entering the Crypto field, which will bring continuous inflow of talents and capital to the Crypto Agent track, thereby driving the entire track to exceed a scale of hundreds of billions of US dollars.
Summary:
This article discusses the long-term growth potential of the Crypto Agent track from three dimensions, explores the interaction between Crypto and Agent, and the impact of the development of the mainstream AI industry on the Crypto Agent track. The conclusion is that the Crypto Agent track meets the criteria for long-term growth. After the Crypto market stabilizes and the impact of DeepSeek, Crypto Agent will recover quickly and usher in long-term explosive growth. As always, Crypto Agent is still the most noteworthy track in 2025 and this bull market.
Risk Warning:
This article only represents the personal views of ABC Alpha researcher. All opinions and inferences are based on personal knowledge. The Agent tokens mentioned in the article do not constitute investment advice. The Crypto market is a highly volatile industry, please make investment judgments based on your own understanding.
