Author: haotian
Happy new start! While I'm at it, let me share some thoughts on the recent market that have left people bewildered, as well as some views on the future trend:
1) The emergence of the $TRUMP token has indeed brought a lot of "incremental" users to the crypto market, with many new users entering through channels like Xiaohongshu. However, the wealth-creating effect of the MEME token of the US President has not had enough time to be digested and absorbed. Even though some incremental users and capital have come in, they may have already had their crypto dreams shattered and been ruthlessly discouraged before they could be converted into on-chain "new users".
However, the TRUMP team has been like a mirror that exposes evil, crushing the "technology, narrative, build, token issuance, and empowerment" ecosystem that has been in balance in the crypto market for years, allowing everyone to see the overly Gambling nature at the core of the crypto market.
But with the same Gambling card, CEX may be beyond redemption, as the self-interested VCs and exchanges that occupy key ecological positions will become the biggest obstacle to retail investors' profits. However, DEX naturally does not have these obstacles, and when the TRUMP-led destructive liquidity bloodletting is over, a brand new on-chain prosperity market will be reignited.
Focus on on-chain will be the main theme of 2025, regardless of bull or bear market.
2) DeepSeek's breakthrough in AI large model computing cost pricing is actually a huge technical boon for the AI Agent track, but unfortunately, its suppression of the bubble in US stocks and Nvidia has led to a "mistaken killing" of web3 AI Agent assets.
Fundamentally, this is the "rational" deflation of the narrative bubble in AI Agent asset issuance, with the market using persistent price declines to reveal a truth - although AI Agent has gone through a round of evolution in terms of framework standards, monolithic AI, on-chain, DeFai, MetAiverse, etc., the problems of immature project technology implementation, the leading role of conspiracy groups, and the lack of value support in the asset valuation system have all been exposed.
The current AI Agent is still on the eve of the arrival of summer, and a thorough reshuffle and reconstruction is needed.
But fortunately, where there is destruction, there will be rebirth.
3) The market suddenly "turned bearish" in the midst of an absolute bullish sentiment, with a crypto-friendly government, the ignition of an on-chain spring, and a plethora of products, protocols and MEME in the market. The fundamentals seem to point to the imminent arrival of a crypto golden age, but it unexpectedly turned bearish? Although it cannot be definitively concluded, it will take some time to repair the damaged sentiment and asset losses.
The core logic is simple: the crypto market has too many asset targets, but lacks enough incremental users and capital, and relying on attention Fomo sentiment alone cannot drive a broad-based rally of old assets. In other words, everyone has the heart to accompany the industry's growth in PVE, but for survival, they can only engage in endless PVP.
If the industry is to suffer a heavenly tribulation under the nature of excessive Gambling, then the new narrative of AI Agent is the Nezha that breaks through all this.
AI Agent can breathe new life into old narratives, can bring new vitality to on-chain DEX, and can bring a new PMF involution cycle centered on products and applications... Even in the short term, AI Agent has given me a void, but it in no way diminishes my infinite aspirations for it.
Because it can accelerate the integration of AI and the crypto world, making everything better and better.
