The cryptocurrency market declined slightly on Wednesday, giving back some of the previous day's gains. Bitstamp data shows that Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $96,500, down 1.6% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum rose 2% to $2,790. Meanwhile, XRP fell 7% to $2.4, and Solana (SOL) fell 6% to $196. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell 1.8% in the past 24 hours to $3.17 trillion.
Trump's tariff agreement continues to cause market volatility
As the market retreats, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policy and regulatory changes persists. Although Trump temporarily suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico, relieving market pressure, investors remain cautious about increased volatility, inflationary pressures, and upcoming legislative developments.
XS.com senior market analyst Antonio Di Giacomo said, "With the Mexican president reaching an agreement with Trump, the market outlook has seen a positive turn." However, despite the price rebound, he warned that cryptocurrency market volatility remains high.
Di Giacomo stated, "Bitcoin continues to face challenges from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, government regulation, and the behavior of large investors. Experts believe that the $100,000 level may become a strong resistance in the short term, and sustained growth will be difficult without new catalysts."
What do the market sentiments imply?
According to the daily timeframe chart analysis by analyst Trivedi, Bitcoin has rebounded from the $92,000 range low and retested the 50% Fibonacci resistance level. However, the price failed to break above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) resistance and continues to trade below it, indicating a lack of sufficient buying momentum in the market.
Although the BTC price has significantly breached the $100,000 level, the overall uptrend remains intact. As long as the price stays above $90,000, the bulls will continue to dominate and may potentially restart the uptrend.
According to Coinglass data, the long-short ratio is currently 0.9849, indicating a slight improvement in market sentiment. However, the open interest (OI) has decreased by 2.30% to $58.84 billion.
The current critical support levels are at $95,000 and $92,000, while the resistance levels are at $100,000 and $105,000.
Optimistic Forecast: Targeting $170,000 within Months, $500,000 by 2028
Market analyst best_analysts in their latest post on the X platform pointed out that if the historical price trend is repeated, Bitcoin may be on the verge of a larger-scale breakthrough. Based on long-term trend analysis, BTC is expected to climb to around $170,000 in the coming months, with the exact gain depending on its ability to maintain the current trend.
Meanwhile, CryptoGoos in their post mentioned that BlackRock has continued to increase its holdings of BTC and ETH during the recent market correction. This move, coupled with the ongoing decline in exchange supply, suggests that the market's demand for this asset is gradually increasing.
Historical data shows that a decrease in exchange supply is often an important signal for the imminent rebound of cryptocurrency assets. Furthermore, as the BTC price has experienced a significant correction from its highs, the market may be accumulating momentum for the next rally towards the all-time high (ATH).
The always-aggressive Standard Chartered Bank in its latest report predicts that the BTC price may reach $500,000 by 2028. This forecast is based on two key factors: the proliferation of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the decline in volatility.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, stated in the report that as the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market matures, Bitcoin's volatility will gradually decrease. He said that under the policy support of the Trump administration, the channels for obtaining Bitcoin are improving, and the trend of institutional capital flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to grow.
Kendrick believes that the optimized portfolio allocation between Bitcoin and gold will gradually increase, driving the long-term appreciation of Bitcoin. He wrote, "As the portfolio approaches its optimal state, the price of Bitcoin will achieve long-term appreciation."
Standard Chartered's Bitcoin forecasts are as follows:
- End of 2025 target: $200,000
- 2026 target: $300,000
- 2028 target: $500,000
Kendrick emphasized that this uptrend will be gradually realized during the tenure of U.S. President Trump and will be sufficient to drive Bitcoin to $500,000 before Trump's departure.
